Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, December 13, 2014 (Pre-Bowl) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Alabama SECw 12-1 .969 7 5 1 76-27 2 2 Oregon PACn 12-1 .966 27 1 6 77-36 3 3 Florida St ACCa 13-0 .948 43 8 21 68-32 4 4 TCU B12 11-1 .946 45 7 7 71-31 5 5 Ohio St BTe 12-1 .945 44 3 19 72-36 6 6 Mississippi SECw 9-3 .928 5 24 2 70-21 7 7 Baylor B12 11-1 .927 55 2 36 71-40 8 8 UCLA PACs 9-3 .917 2 12 24 66-31 9 9 Mississippi St SECw 10-2 .914 38 16 5 68-27 10 10 Auburn SECw 8-4 .903 1 4 18 70-33 11 11 Arizona PACs 10-3 .887 13 23 32 62-30 12 12 Georgia Tech ACCc 10-3 .886 34 15 33 63-32 13 13 Georgia SECe 9-3 .886 35 6 22 69-33 14 14 Michigan St BTe 10-2 .884 62 11 8 69-28 15 15 Missouri SECe 10-3 .883 22 36 14 62-24 16 16 Kansas St B12 9-3 .878 26 19 16 65-28 17 17 Arizona St PACs 9-3 .878 25 9 44 64-35 18 18 Southern Cal PACs 8-4 .860 12 20 10 66-27 19 19 Oklahoma B12 8-4 .852 23 10 11 69-30 20 20 Wisconsin BTw 10-3 .837 59 21 15 65-28 21 21 Nebraska BTw 9-3 .828 54 18 40 62-32 22 22 Boise St MWm 11-2 .822 71 17 47 61-33 23 23 Utah PACs 8-4 .817 15 37 27 60-27 24 24 Louisville ACCa 9-3 .815 60 29 25 61-27 25 25 LSU SECw 8-4 .808 21 44 4 63-22 26 26 Clemson ACCa 9-3 .805 57 45 12 61-23 27 27 Stanford PACn 7-5 .794 18 41 3 67-18 28 28 Arkansas SECw 6-6 .778 3 28 9 64-24 29 29 West Virginia B12 7-5 .776 14 26 38 60-30 30 30 Marshall USAe 12-1 .766 122 14 52 60-35 31 31 Minnesota BTw 8-4 .753 48 56 30 56-24 32 32 Notre Dame Xind 7-5 .746 24 31 42 59-29 33 33 Texas A&M SECw 7-5 .740 20 13 54 60-35 34 34 Colorado St MWm 10-2 .732 97 46 59 54-30 35 35 Washington PACn 8-5 .718 46 47 26 58-25 36 36 Cincinnati AA 9-3 .707 79 35 53 56-31 37 37 Duke ACCc 9-3 .701 81 40 45 57-29 38 38 Memphis AA 9-3 .698 91 53 37 56-26 39 39 Tennessee SECe 6-6 .697 9 42 29 59-27 40 40 Texas B12 6-6 .689 6 65 20 57-21 41 41 Florida SECe 6-5 .682 33 52 13 60-22 42 42 Maryland BTe 7-5 .663 40 50 55 54-29 43 43 Central Florida AA 9-3 .663 92 60 31 56-24 44 44 Brigham Young Xind 8-4 .654 76 30 48 58-30 45 45 Miami-Florida ACCc 6-6 .651 31 38 41 58-28 46 46 Boston College ACCa 7-5 .651 56 69 39 54-24 47 47 Rutgers BTe 7-5 .645 32 68 62 50-27 48 48 South Carolina SECe 6-6 .640 28 25 49 59-32 49 49 Louisiana Tech USAw 8-5 .633 69 48 61 54-30 50 50 Utah St MWm 9-4 .615 89 83 34 53-21 51 51 Iowa BTw 7-5 .614 63 55 28 57-24 52 52 Northern Ill MACw 11-2 .612 115 54 68 50-31 53 53 Oklahoma St B12 6-6 .609 19 39 60 55-31 54 54 Virginia Tech ACCc 6-6 .584 49 82 17 56-19 55 55 East Carolina AA 8-4 .578 95 27 70 54-35 56 56 Air Force MWm 9-3 .574 102 79 67 48-28 57 57 Nevada MWw 7-5 .555 74 51 64 51-30 58 58 California PACn 5-7 .554 16 22 99 52-40 59 59 N Carolina St ACCa 7-5 .548 67 67 65 49-28 60 60 Virginia ACCc 5-7 .543 30 78 43 52-23 61 61 Penn St BTe 6-6 .534 58 88 23 53-18 62 62 North Carolina ACCc 6-6 .533 37 34 94 50-37 63 63 Pittsburgh ACCc 6-6 .500 66 49 58 53-29 64 64 Ga Southern SunB 9-3 .492 125 66 75 47-30 65 65 Illinois BTw 6-6 .491 47 74 87 45-31 66 66 Kentucky SECe 5-7 .487 41 58 69 50-30 67 67 Oregon St PACn 5-7 .483 29 59 63 51-29 68 68 Michigan BTe 5-7 .470 39 81 35 53-22 69 73 Navy Xind 7-5 .460 87 57 66 50-30 70 69 Northwestern BTw 5-7 .459 51 72 51 51-25 71 70 Rice USAw 7-5 .458 88 84 77 45-29 72 71 Western Ky USAe 7-5 .454 94 32 114 47-41 73 72 Toledo MACw 8-4 .454 109 62 88 47-32 74 74 Western Mich MACw 8-4 .435 121 73 80 46-30 75 75 Houston AA 7-5 .426 106 61 50 53-26 76 76 Texas Tech B12 4-8 .419 17 33 100 50-38 77 77 La-Lafayette SunB 8-4 .410 113 75 85 45-31 78 78 San Diego St MWw 7-5 .408 107 92 57 47-22 79 79 Temple AA 6-6 .395 82 94 46 48-21 80 80 UT-El Paso USAw 7-5 .381 100 96 93 40-27 81 81 Fresno St MWw 6-7 .363 72 70 91 45-32 82 82 Washington St PACn 3-9 .359 11 43 90 49-35 83 83 UA-Birmingham USAe 6-6 .352 90 76 109 42-33 84 84 Arkansas St SunB 7-5 .340 120 80 83 45-30 85 85 Kansas B12 3-9 .330 10 107 71 41-22 86 86 Central Mich MACw 7-5 .321 117 95 73 43-25 87 87 Indiana BTe 4-8 .314 52 64 106 45-34 88 88 Middle Tenn USAe 6-6 .291 96 87 97 42-29 89 89 Colorado PACs 2-10 .282 8 63 95 46-33 90 90 Bowling Green MACe 7-6 .275 108 89 101 41-30 91 92 Iowa St B12 2-10 .269 4 77 105 43-32 92 91 South Alabama SunB 6-6 .269 101 106 78 40-24 93 93 Appalachian St SunB 7-5 .245 126 86 107 41-30 94 94 Old Dominion USAe 6-6 .245 105 71 124 38-38 95 95 Syracuse ACCa 3-9 .241 42 99 56 46-21 96 96 Wyoming MWm 4-8 .235 65 100 111 37-28 97 97 Texas St SunB 7-5 .226 128 97 110 38-29 98 98 Vanderbilt SECe 3-9 .226 36 101 82 40-25 99 99 Purdue BTw 3-9 .222 53 91 89 42-28 100 100 Ohio U MACe 6-6 .197 114 119 84 36-22 101 101 Wake Forest ACCa 3-9 .185 61 120 72 38-20 102 102 New Mexico MWm 4-8 .179 83 85 121 37-35 103 103 South Florida AA 4-8 .178 73 116 76 37-21 104 104 Ball St MACw 5-7 .176 116 93 104 40-29 105 105 Tulane AA 3-9 .166 64 117 81 37-21 106 106 UT-San Antonio USAw 4-8 .164 85 115 74 38-21 107 107 Hawaii MWw 4-9 .164 84 110 98 37-25 108 108 Florida Atl USAe 3-9 .150 78 103 102 38-26 109 109 Akron MACe 5-7 .150 123 111 86 38-23 110 110 La-Monroe SunB 4-8 .149 98 118 79 37-21 111 111 Florida Int USAe 4-8 .148 110 114 92 37-24 112 112 Buffalo MACe 5-6 .146 127 90 113 38-32 113 113 Southern Miss USAw 3-9 .139 68 112 115 33-27 114 114 San Jose St MWw 3-9 .138 77 105 96 38-25 115 115 Army Xind 4-8 .122 103 108 116 34-29 116 116 Tulsa AA 2-10 .096 70 98 120 35-32 117 117 Massachusetts MACe 3-9 .089 112 109 118 34-29 118 118 North Texas USAw 4-8 .088 119 104 112 36-28 119 119 SMU AA 1-11 .083 50 127 117 30-25 120 120 UN-Las Vegas MWw 2-11 .077 75 102 123 32-32 121 121 Miami-Ohio MACe 2-10 .070 93 122 119 31-27 122 122 Connecticut AA 2-10 .068 80 124 108 34-23 123 123 Troy St SunB 3-9 .066 111 113 122 30-30 124 124 Kent St MACe 2-9 .062 99 125 103 34-23 125 125 Eastern Mich MACw 2-10 .047 86 128 126 23-30 126 126 Georgia St SunB 1-11 .024 104 126 127 23-33 127 127 New Mexico St SunB 2-10 .023 124 123 128 23-34 128 128 Idaho SunB 1-10 .020 118 121 125 27-31 *****