Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion (of 295) in RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Combo-6 in Week-Zero for 2013 & 2014 Beck's "Smallest Deviation from Game Scores" in 2nd-Half 2014 Ranked # 1 by Wobus Correlations in Week-Zero for 2015

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, December 10, 2016 (thru Week 15) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Alabama SECw 13-0 .990 5 1 1 82-26 2 2 Ohio St BTe 11-1 .967 11 4 3 75-28 3 3 Washington PACn 12-1 .958 43 6 6 73-28 4 4 Clemson ACCa 12-1 .951 35 3 10 73-32 5 5 Michigan BTe 10-2 .936 37 8 2 74-26 6 6 Penn St BTe 11-2 .933 16 18 15 66-29 7 7 Southern Cal PACs 9-3 .932 1 12 9 69-28 8 8 Oklahoma B12 10-2 .918 26 2 28 69-37 9 9 Colorado PACs 10-3 .916 8 34 12 64-25 10 10 Wisconsin BTw 10-3 .906 13 39 5 66-21 11 11 Stanford PACn 9-3 .903 9 37 7 66-22 12 12 Florida St ACCa 9-3 .895 14 10 16 67-30 13 13 West Virginia B12 10-2 .880 46 32 25 61-28 14 14 Western Mich MACw 13-0 .874 107 17 46 61-34 15 15 LSU SECw 7-4 .854 4 24 4 68-23 16 16 Louisville ACCa 9-3 .848 60 5 26 68-35 17 17 Auburn SECw 8-4 .823 23 35 11 65-24 18 18 Nebraska BTw 9-3 .821 53 43 27 59-27 19 19 Oklahoma St B12 9-3 .820 55 16 44 61-34 20 20 Washington St PACn 8-4 .820 22 15 34 63-33 21 21 Florida SECe 8-4 .819 18 64 8 61-18 22 23 Virginia Tech ACCc 9-4 .804 41 26 20 62-28 23 24 Boise St MWm 10-2 .804 75 29 31 61-29 24 25 Miami-Florida ACCc 8-4 .803 54 28 14 64-27 25 22 South Florida AAe 10-2 .802 76 19 55 58-36 26 26 Utah PACs 8-4 .796 29 48 21 59-25 27 28 Pittsburgh ACCc 8-4 .784 31 9 64 59-38 28 27 Texas A&M SECw 8-4 .784 45 25 23 62-29 29 29 Tennessee SECe 8-4 .782 36 13 42 62-34 30 30 Iowa BTw 8-4 .778 47 52 13 61-22 31 31 Kansas St B12 8-4 .767 50 46 22 59-26 32 32 North Carolina ACCc 8-4 .749 58 23 41 60-32 33 33 Brigham Young Xind 8-4 .743 65 44 19 60-25 34 34 Temple AAe 10-3 .741 88 54 17 58-23 35 36 Georgia Tech ACCc 8-4 .733 44 50 43 56-28 36 35 Houston AAw 9-3 .731 80 27 38 60-31 37 37 Minnesota BTw 8-4 .714 63 55 35 56-26 38 39 Tulsa AAw 9-3 .706 81 21 84 53-39 39 40 Western Ky USAe 10-3 .692 99 11 60 59-38 40 41 Arkansas SECw 7-5 .683 24 40 49 56-30 41 42 Toledo MACw 9-3 .672 94 30 53 56-33 42 43 Georgia SECe 7-5 .654 42 61 32 55-25 43 38 Navy AAw 9-4 .647 70 42 66 54-33 44 45 Northwestern BTw 6-6 .642 25 67 18 56-22 45 44 Memphis AAw 8-4 .642 73 36 62 55-33 46 46 Appalachian St SunB 9-3 .639 111 75 29 54-22 47 47 Kentucky SECe 7-5 .634 49 49 73 51-33 48 48 San Diego St MWw 10-3 .630 116 63 36 54-25 49 49 N Carolina St ACCa 6-6 .614 40 62 30 55-24 50 50 Air Force MWm 9-3 .612 101 58 58 51-29 51 51 Mississippi SECw 5-7 .602 2 22 51 58-34 52 52 Vanderbilt SECe 6-6 .582 32 88 24 52-19 53 53 TCU B12 6-6 .579 48 47 37 57-28 54 54 California PACn 5-7 .568 3 20 99 52-42 55 55 Troy SunB 9-3 .551 124 77 67 48-27 56 56 Mississippi St SECw 5-7 .542 21 41 52 55-32 57 57 Wyoming MWm 8-5 .532 77 56 95 46-35 58 58 Colorado St MWm 7-5 .531 78 57 71 50-31 59 59 Old Dominion USAe 9-3 .525 126 69 92 45-33 60 60 Maryland BTe 6-6 .520 57 71 69 49-29 61 61 Indiana BTe 6-6 .519 51 60 68 50-30 62 62 Baylor B12 6-6 .508 64 33 61 55-34 63 64 Louisiana Tech USAw 8-5 .504 98 31 85 52-38 64 63 Texas B12 5-7 .503 34 53 48 54-28 65 65 UCLA PACs 4-8 .481 7 65 33 55-24 66 66 Oregon PACn 4-8 .479 6 14 90 54-42 67 67 Texas Tech B12 5-7 .477 52 7 117 53-48 68 70 Wake Forest ACCa 6-6 .471 62 102 39 47-19 69 69 Boston College ACCa 6-6 .469 66 106 40 47-18 70 68 Central Florida AAe 6-6 .469 72 76 65 49-28 71 71 South Carolina SECe 6-6 .466 56 100 50 46-21 72 72 Arizona St PACs 5-7 .463 17 45 86 49-36 73 73 Notre Dame Xind 4-8 .453 28 38 47 57-30 74 74 Oregon St PACn 4-8 .446 10 68 63 50-28 75 75 Idaho SunB 8-4 .431 105 86 109 39-32 76 76 New Mexico MWm 8-4 .424 121 66 93 45-34 77 77 Ohio U MACe 8-5 .421 114 94 54 46-23 78 78 Middle Tenn USAe 8-4 .401 123 51 112 45-38 79 81 Duke ACCc 4-8 .359 33 81 57 48-26 80 79 Arkansas St SunB 7-5 .359 119 84 72 45-27 81 80 Syracuse ACCa 4-8 .356 20 73 94 44-33 82 82 Eastern Mich MACw 7-5 .355 96 91 111 39-32 83 84 Michigan St BTe 3-9 .338 15 72 45 52-25 84 83 SMU AAw 5-7 .337 67 79 108 41-34 85 93 Army Xind 7-5 .322 125 99 56 45-22 86 85 Arizona PACs 3-9 .305 12 59 97 46-35 87 86 Central Mich MACw 6-6 .303 91 90 76 44-27 88 87 Missouri SECe 4-8 .301 59 80 59 48-27 89 88 Iowa St B12 3-9 .297 30 78 70 47-28 90 89 Northern Ill MACw 5-7 .293 82 74 79 47-30 91 90 UT-San Antonio USAw 6-6 .289 108 97 87 41-27 92 91 Miami-Ohio MACe 6-6 .284 97 109 77 40-24 93 92 Hawaii MWw 6-7 .277 83 96 116 37-31 94 94 Southern Miss USAw 6-6 .254 122 70 91 45-32 95 95 La-Lafayette SunB 6-6 .232 120 111 88 38-25 96 96 Illinois BTw 3-9 .227 39 98 83 41-27 97 97 Ga Southern SunB 5-7 .217 95 85 80 44-28 98 98 Akron MACe 5-7 .215 92 95 104 38-29 99 99 Cincinnati AAe 4-8 .200 71 104 74 42-24 100 100 Virginia ACCc 2-10 .196 27 89 78 44-27 101 101 South Alabama SunB 6-6 .194 127 115 96 36-25 102 102 Rutgers BTe 2-10 .188 19 101 103 38-28 103 103 Purdue BTw 3-9 .179 61 82 110 40-33 104 105 Utah St MWm 3-9 .175 69 93 81 42-27 105 104 Tulane AAw 4-8 .173 85 120 89 37-24 106 107 North Texas USAw 5-7 .169 104 123 114 32-25 107 106 Bowling Green MACe 4-8 .168 84 83 115 39-33 108 108 Kansas B12 2-10 .155 38 112 102 36-26 109 109 Nevada MWw 5-7 .154 118 103 98 38-28 110 110 San Jose St MWw 4-8 .149 87 107 105 37-28 111 111 East Carolina AAe 3-9 .141 68 87 106 40-32 112 112 Kent St MACe 3-9 .138 79 122 82 37-22 113 113 Ball St MACw 4-8 .136 110 105 100 38-28 114 114 La-Monroe SunB 4-8 .123 93 114 126 30-31 115 115 UN-Las Vegas MWw 4-8 .118 103 92 124 35-35 116 116 Connecticut AAe 3-9 .112 74 126 75 37-19 117 117 Charlotte USAe 4-8 .103 117 121 125 30-30 118 118 Florida Int USAe 4-8 .099 106 118 118 33-28 119 119 New Mexico St SunB 3-9 .080 90 110 127 29-34 120 120 Florida Atl USAe 3-9 .072 109 113 123 31-31 121 122 Rice USAw 3-9 .072 102 116 120 32-30 122 121 Georgia St SunB 3-9 .071 112 125 101 33-23 123 123 Massachusetts Xind 2-10 .066 86 117 121 32-29 124 125 UT-El Paso USAw 4-8 .063 128 119 122 30-30 125 124 Marshall USAe 3-9 .062 115 108 113 35-29 126 126 Fresno St MWw 1-11 .039 89 124 107 32-25 127 127 Buffalo MACe 2-10 .039 100 127 119 28-26 128 128 Texas St SunB 2-10 .025 113 128 128 22-31 *****