Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Monday, January 12, 2015 (Final) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 5 Ohio St BTe 14-1 .968 17 3 13 75-36 2 2 Oregon PACn 13-2 .963 9 1 9 77-36 3 1 Alabama SECw 12-2 .961 4 6 2 75-27 4 4 TCU B12 12-1 .955 44 4 4 73-30 5 3 Florida St ACCa 13-1 .938 31 8 22 67-32 6 8 UCLA PACs 10-3 .927 2 12 24 66-31 7 7 Baylor B12 11-2 .912 52 2 37 71-41 8 13 Georgia SECe 10-3 .911 32 5 17 70-33 9 12 Georgia Tech ACCc 11-3 .910 29 11 30 65-33 10 6 Mississippi SECw 9-4 .908 3 30 3 68-21 11 14 Michigan St BTe 11-2 .907 57 10 8 69-29 12 15 Missouri SECe 11-3 .899 21 33 10 63-24 13 17 Arizona St PACs 10-3 .887 30 9 45 64-35 14 9 Mississippi St SECw 10-3 .886 37 17 12 67-28 15 10 Auburn SECw 8-5 .882 1 7 20 69-33 16 18 Southern Cal PACs 9-4 .875 8 19 16 66-28 17 20 Wisconsin BTw 11-3 .864 56 21 15 66-28 18 11 Arizona PACs 10-4 .857 10 23 35 61-31 19 26 Clemson ACCa 10-3 .852 51 40 6 63-22 20 16 Kansas St B12 9-4 .851 27 20 19 65-29 21 23 Utah PACs 9-4 .838 16 32 25 61-27 22 22 Boise St MWm 12-2 .835 68 18 48 61-33 23 27 Stanford PACn 8-5 .822 20 37 1 68-19 24 19 Oklahoma B12 8-5 .814 19 14 18 67-30 25 28 Arkansas SECw 7-6 .807 5 26 5 65-24 26 21 Nebraska BTw 9-4 .806 50 16 43 62-33 27 30 Marshall USAe 13-1 .795 117 13 49 62-35 28 24 Louisville ACCa 9-4 .792 53 35 26 60-27 29 32 Notre Dame Xind 8-5 .780 24 29 38 59-30 30 25 LSU SECw 8-5 .774 26 45 7 63-22 31 33 Texas A&M SECw 8-5 .772 22 15 53 61-36 32 29 West Virginia B12 7-6 .737 13 25 42 60-31 33 39 Tennessee SECe 7-6 .735 14 36 28 60-27 34 38 Memphis AA 10-3 .726 86 47 41 56-27 35 41 Florida SECe 7-5 .722 38 52 11 60-21 36 31 Minnesota BTw 8-5 .721 43 57 32 56-24 37 47 Rutgers BTe 8-5 .691 39 64 60 51-27 38 48 South Carolina SECe 7-6 .689 28 24 44 59-31 39 37 Duke ACCc 9-4 .683 76 42 46 57-29 40 34 Colorado St MWm 10-3 .680 92 51 62 52-30 41 35 Washington PACn 8-6 .675 48 50 29 57-25 42 36 Cincinnati AA 9-4 .664 71 39 58 55-31 43 49 Louisiana Tech USAw 9-5 .663 70 46 56 54-30 44 40 Texas B12 6-7 .648 6 70 21 56-20 45 53 Oklahoma St B12 7-6 .648 25 41 57 55-31 46 42 Maryland BTe 7-6 .644 33 49 59 53-29 47 54 Virginia Tech ACCc 7-6 .644 49 74 14 57-19 48 50 Utah St MWm 10-4 .631 94 84 27 53-20 49 45 Miami-Florida ACCc 6-7 .621 35 44 36 58-27 50 46 Boston College ACCa 7-6 .618 59 68 40 53-24 51 43 Central Florida AA 9-4 .610 93 61 34 55-24 52 44 Brigham Young Xind 8-5 .608 72 27 54 57-32 53 59 N Carolina St ACCa 8-5 .600 65 62 64 50-29 54 56 Air Force MWm 10-3 .600 107 71 67 48-28 55 61 Penn St BTe 7-6 .577 61 85 23 53-19 56 52 Northern Ill MACw 11-3 .576 111 56 72 49-31 57 51 Iowa BTw 7-6 .572 63 54 33 56-25 58 58 California PACn 5-7 .549 18 22 98 52-40 59 55 East Carolina AA 8-5 .547 89 31 69 54-35 60 60 Virginia ACCc 5-7 .542 36 79 39 52-23 61 71 Rice USAw 8-5 .512 87 83 71 46-28 62 69 Navy Xind 8-5 .500 83 58 65 51-29 63 64 Ga Southern SunB 9-3 .499 125 67 76 48-30 64 73 Toledo MACw 9-4 .492 108 53 89 48-34 65 62 North Carolina ACCc 6-7 .492 40 38 95 49-37 66 66 Kentucky SECe 5-7 .490 45 55 68 50-30 67 67 Oregon St PACn 5-7 .483 34 59 63 51-29 68 68 Michigan BTe 5-7 .483 42 78 31 53-22 69 72 Western Ky USAe 8-5 .480 95 28 116 47-42 70 63 Pittsburgh ACCc 6-7 .476 66 48 61 53-30 71 57 Nevada MWw 7-6 .474 77 66 66 50-29 72 77 La-Lafayette SunB 9-4 .470 112 77 75 47-29 73 75 Houston AA 8-5 .465 101 60 50 53-27 74 70 Northwestern BTw 5-7 .455 58 72 51 51-25 75 65 Illinois BTw 6-7 .449 47 81 86 45-30 76 76 Texas Tech B12 4-8 .412 23 34 102 50-38 77 79 Temple AA 6-6 .391 82 94 47 48-20 78 74 Western Mich MACw 8-5 .390 119 76 85 45-30 79 78 San Diego St MWw 7-6 .374 106 95 55 47-22 80 82 Washington St PACn 3-9 .358 11 43 88 49-35 81 83 UA-Birmingham USAe 6-6 .357 91 75 109 43-33 82 80 UT-El Paso USAw 7-6 .349 98 99 91 40-27 83 87 Indiana BTe 4-8 .324 54 63 103 45-34 84 85 Kansas B12 3-9 .323 15 108 70 41-22 85 81 Fresno St MWw 6-8 .311 75 82 92 44-31 86 84 Arkansas St SunB 7-6 .306 118 73 96 44-32 87 90 Bowling Green MACe 8-6 .304 110 88 104 41-30 88 86 Central Mich MACw 7-6 .296 116 92 77 43-26 89 88 Middle Tenn USAe 6-6 .292 97 89 94 42-29 90 89 Colorado PACs 2-10 .277 12 65 93 46-33 91 91 Iowa St B12 2-10 .263 7 80 106 43-32 92 94 Old Dominion USAe 6-6 .254 104 69 123 38-38 93 93 Appalachian St SunB 7-5 .248 126 87 107 41-30 94 95 Syracuse ACCa 3-9 .244 46 98 52 46-21 95 92 South Alabama SunB 6-7 .239 103 105 81 40-24 96 96 Wyoming MWm 4-8 .230 67 101 111 37-28 97 98 Vanderbilt SECe 3-9 .228 41 100 82 40-25 98 97 Texas St SunB 7-5 .227 128 96 110 38-30 99 99 Purdue BTw 3-9 .220 60 91 87 42-28 100 100 Ohio U MACe 6-6 .197 115 120 83 36-22 101 101 Wake Forest ACCa 3-9 .191 62 118 73 38-20 102 103 South Florida AA 4-8 .176 74 117 78 37-21 103 102 New Mexico MWm 4-8 .175 84 86 121 37-35 104 104 Ball St MACw 5-7 .174 120 93 105 40-29 105 106 UT-San Antonio USAw 4-8 .167 85 115 74 38-21 106 105 Tulane AA 3-9 .167 64 116 80 37-21 107 107 Hawaii MWw 4-9 .157 88 110 99 37-25 108 109 Akron MACe 5-7 .153 123 112 84 38-23 109 111 Florida Int USAe 4-8 .153 109 113 90 37-24 110 108 Florida Atl USAe 3-9 .152 79 104 101 38-26 111 110 La-Monroe SunB 4-8 .151 100 119 79 37-21 112 112 Buffalo MACe 5-6 .147 127 90 113 39-32 113 113 Southern Miss USAw 3-9 .142 69 114 114 33-27 114 114 San Jose St MWw 3-9 .129 80 107 97 38-26 115 115 Army Xind 4-8 .127 102 106 115 34-29 116 116 Tulsa AA 2-10 .091 73 97 120 35-32 117 117 Massachusetts MACe 3-9 .090 114 109 117 34-29 118 118 North Texas USAw 4-8 .089 122 103 112 36-28 119 119 SMU AA 1-11 .083 55 127 118 30-25 120 120 UN-Las Vegas MWw 2-11 .072 78 102 124 32-32 121 123 Troy St SunB 3-9 .069 113 111 122 31-30 122 121 Miami-Ohio MACe 2-10 .069 96 123 119 31-27 123 122 Connecticut AA 2-10 .066 81 124 108 34-23 124 124 Kent St MACe 2-9 .065 99 125 100 34-22 125 125 Eastern Mich MACw 2-10 .047 90 128 126 23-30 126 126 Georgia St SunB 1-11 .025 105 126 127 23-33 127 127 New Mexico St SunB 2-10 .023 124 122 128 23-34 128 128 Idaho SunB 1-10 .020 121 121 125 26-31 *****