Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, October 18, 2014 (Week 8) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Mississippi SECw 7-0 .976 8 14 2 73-23 2 2 Auburn SECw 5-1 .964 3 3 4 75-30 3 6 Alabama SECw 6-1 .957 12 7 1 76-25 4 3 Mississippi St SECw 6-0 .953 23 12 5 69-27 5 4 Florida St ACCa 7-0 .944 39 5 11 71-32 6 8 Georgia SECe 6-1 .934 17 6 15 70-33 7 9 Oregon PACn 6-1 .931 34 2 14 73-35 8 11 TCU B12 5-1 .918 27 13 7 68-28 9 5 Oklahoma B12 5-2 .918 7 8 6 71-29 10 12 Ohio St BTe 5-1 .913 47 4 18 71-34 11 10 Notre Dame Xind 6-1 .898 19 32 8 64-24 12 7 Baylor B12 6-1 .884 72 1 34 69-39 13 13 UCLA PACs 5-2 .882 1 11 25 65-31 14 17 Nebraska BTw 6-1 .880 52 17 23 65-30 15 14 Southern Cal PACs 5-2 .876 10 18 10 66-27 16 24 Arizona St PACs 5-1 .866 29 9 54 63-36 17 23 Kansas St B12 5-1 .864 38 19 20 64-29 18 19 Utah PACs 5-1 .858 45 24 22 63-28 19 22 Michigan St BTe 6-1 .855 82 16 12 67-28 20 18 Arizona PACs 5-1 .842 22 22 39 60-31 21 20 Clemson ACCa 5-2 .838 13 29 17 63-26 22 30 Missouri SECe 5-2 .824 21 30 19 62-26 23 25 Marshall USAe 7-0 .824 123 15 48 62-34 24 27 LSU SECw 6-2 .806 55 28 16 63-26 25 15 Texas A&M SECw 5-3 .804 9 10 56 63-36 26 40 West Virginia B12 5-2 .803 15 21 52 60-32 27 26 Louisville ACCa 6-2 .795 73 40 13 62-24 28 16 Stanford PACn 4-3 .783 28 43 3 66-19 29 21 Oklahoma St B12 5-2 .761 46 23 46 60-32 30 32 East Carolina AA 5-1 .754 92 20 64 58-34 31 46 Maryland BTe 5-2 .741 48 41 38 57-28 32 38 Duke ACCc 6-1 .738 106 42 32 58-27 33 34 Minnesota BTw 6-1 .734 74 65 33 54-24 34 28 Virginia Tech ACCc 4-3 .728 33 53 9 60-21 35 29 Arkansas SECw 3-4 .727 4 26 28 62-29 36 43 Boise St MWm 5-2 .725 44 37 40 58-29 37 45 Colorado St MWm 6-1 .723 77 54 57 53-27 38 35 South Carolina SECe 4-3 .711 24 25 35 60-30 39 39 Wisconsin BTw 4-2 .696 98 31 21 62-27 40 33 Georgia Tech ACCc 5-2 .695 60 36 61 55-31 41 47 Miami-Florida ACCc 4-3 .689 26 35 49 57-30 42 37 Tennessee SECe 3-4 .682 6 45 27 58-25 43 31 Brigham Young Xind 4-3 .681 35 34 41 58-29 44 44 Washington PACn 5-2 .675 68 48 43 55-27 45 41 Iowa BTw 5-2 .675 75 58 26 56-23 46 50 Central Florida AA 4-2 .660 58 56 31 56-24 47 42 Oregon St PACn 4-2 .656 59 46 51 56-28 48 60 Nevada MWw 4-3 .640 32 44 60 54-30 49 49 Rutgers BTe 5-2 .639 50 64 59 51-27 50 36 Florida SECe 3-3 .635 11 59 24 57-22 51 51 Penn St BTe 4-2 .616 67 80 29 54-21 52 56 Memphis AA 3-3 .612 31 57 44 54-26 53 48 Kentucky SECe 5-2 .601 95 61 58 52-27 54 53 Virginia ACCc 4-3 .590 40 72 50 52-24 55 55 Boston College ACCa 4-3 .578 66 73 45 52-24 56 54 Texas B12 3-4 .569 16 66 30 55-23 57 61 Louisiana Tech USAw 4-3 .563 42 63 68 50-29 58 52 Utah St MWm 4-3 .562 64 79 37 52-23 59 58 California PACn 4-3 .558 43 27 94 51-39 60 63 Houston AA 4-3 .547 89 50 36 55-26 61 65 Pittsburgh ACCc 4-3 .533 83 60 53 53-26 62 57 Northwestern BTw 3-4 .501 37 74 42 52-24 63 62 Arkansas St SunB 4-2 .489 103 90 63 48-24 64 71 Syracuse ACCa 3-4 .483 20 75 55 51-25 65 77 Cincinnati AA 3-3 .478 61 49 67 52-31 66 73 North Carolina ACCc 3-4 .475 18 33 96 50-38 67 59 Temple AA 4-2 .470 120 76 62 50-26 68 67 Michigan BTe 3-4 .460 54 71 47 52-24 69 64 Washington St PACn 2-5 .458 14 38 72 52-34 70 69 Ga Southern SunB 5-2 .445 126 70 75 47-30 71 75 Texas Tech B12 3-4 .437 41 39 82 50-35 72 68 Northern Ill MACw 5-2 .425 119 52 83 48-33 73 72 Air Force MWm 5-2 .415 117 89 80 44-28 74 74 N Carolina St ACCa 4-4 .411 62 78 73 46-29 75 70 Iowa St B12 2-5 .408 5 55 81 48-32 76 66 Indiana BTe 3-4 .396 49 47 106 47-37 77 86 Middle Tenn USAe 5-3 .386 97 82 87 44-30 78 80 Rice USAw 3-3 .385 76 85 78 45-28 79 82 Toledo MACw 4-3 .374 93 67 93 45-33 80 78 Navy Xind 3-4 .366 85 69 66 49-28 81 88 San Diego St MWw 4-3 .360 110 95 65 45-23 82 89 San Jose St MWw 3-3 .357 79 91 71 44-26 83 83 South Alabama SunB 4-2 .342 115 99 79 41-25 84 94 Western Mich MACw 4-3 .335 107 87 100 42-31 85 87 Fresno St MWw 3-5 .334 51 62 99 45-33 86 76 Bowling Green MACe 5-3 .315 112 83 95 43-31 87 79 UA-Birmingham USAe 4-3 .312 114 77 111 42-34 88 90 Colorado PACs 2-5 .303 30 68 98 45-33 89 93 Purdue BTw 3-5 .298 63 84 88 43-30 90 84 Akron MACe 4-3 .297 118 106 70 41-23 91 85 Central Mich MACw 4-4 .296 104 93 77 43-26 92 101 La-Lafayette SunB 3-3 .295 96 81 91 44-30 93 96 Florida Atl USAe 3-4 .286 56 97 92 40-27 94 81 Western Ky USAe 2-4 .285 87 51 107 45-36 95 92 Illinois BTw 3-4 .279 71 86 103 42-31 96 91 UT-San Antonio USAw 2-5 .274 53 96 69 44-24 97 111 Southern Miss USAw 3-4 .231 57 108 109 36-28 98 102 UT-El Paso USAw 3-3 .219 94 100 116 35-31 99 106 South Florida AA 3-4 .213 84 111 84 39-24 100 95 Wyoming MWm 3-4 .211 70 110 108 36-28 101 100 Vanderbilt SECe 2-5 .209 25 102 86 40-26 102 97 Kansas B12 2-5 .206 36 118 74 38-21 103 99 Florida Int USAe 3-5 .197 99 114 85 38-24 104 113 Ohio U MACe 4-4 .173 109 120 90 36-22 105 103 La-Monroe SunB 3-3 .173 101 122 102 34-23 106 107 Old Dominion USAe 3-4 .166 116 88 123 37-36 107 98 Wake Forest ACCa 2-5 .164 69 125 76 37-20 108 109 Tulane AA 2-5 .159 81 115 89 37-24 109 116 Ball St MACw 2-5 .156 108 92 101 40-29 110 104 Hawaii MWw 2-5 .146 88 113 105 36-26 111 110 Buffalo MACe 3-4 .131 127 94 113 37-32 112 114 New Mexico MWm 2-5 .124 102 98 119 35-32 113 118 UN-Las Vegas MWw 2-5 .116 65 109 122 33-31 114 105 Army Xind 2-5 .110 100 104 120 34-31 115 119 Massachusetts MACe 2-6 .108 111 107 115 34-30 116 108 Texas St SunB 3-3 .106 128 112 117 34-29 117 125 Appalachian St SunB 2-5 .088 124 101 112 35-30 118 124 Kent St MACe 1-6 .086 86 119 104 35-24 119 112 North Texas USAw 2-5 .086 121 105 110 36-28 120 115 Tulsa AA 1-6 .086 80 103 118 34-31 121 121 Connecticut AA 1-5 .077 91 123 97 35-23 122 117 SMU AA 0-6 .077 2 127 114 30-26 123 123 Miami-Ohio MACe 1-7 .070 78 117 121 31-28 124 122 Eastern Mich MACw 2-5 .052 90 128 127 23-30 125 120 Troy St SunB 1-6 .048 105 116 124 29-32 126 127 Georgia St SunB 1-6 .036 113 121 126 26-32 127 126 New Mexico St SunB 2-6 .032 125 126 128 24-32 128 128 Idaho SunB 1-6 .029 122 124 125 27-30 *****