Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, October 11, 2014 (Week 7) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 2 Mississippi SECw 6-0 .969 10 13 1 72-23 2 1 Auburn SECw 5-1 .963 3 3 4 75-30 3 7 Mississippi St SECw 6-0 .951 18 12 6 70-27 4 4 Florida St ACCa 6-0 .944 43 4 8 72-32 5 3 Oklahoma B12 5-1 .944 9 8 5 72-29 6 6 Alabama SECw 5-1 .934 16 10 3 72-25 7 5 Baylor B12 6-0 .933 83 1 31 72-39 8 14 Georgia SECe 5-1 .921 25 7 13 70-32 9 12 Oregon PACn 5-1 .921 31 2 15 72-35 10 11 Notre Dame Xind 6-0 .902 45 33 10 63-24 11 8 TCU B12 4-1 .901 21 14 11 67-28 12 10 Ohio St BTe 4-1 .891 42 5 18 69-34 13 9 UCLA PACs 4-2 .875 2 11 24 66-31 14 16 Southern Cal PACs 4-2 .870 4 21 7 66-26 15 13 Texas A&M SECw 5-2 .852 22 6 39 66-36 16 18 Stanford PACn 4-2 .848 36 30 2 68-20 17 20 Nebraska BTw 5-1 .834 65 17 32 62-30 18 15 Arizona PACs 5-1 .826 24 23 44 60-31 19 19 Utah PACs 4-1 .826 56 24 27 62-29 20 30 Clemson ACCa 4-2 .820 15 26 17 63-27 21 21 Oklahoma St B12 5-1 .812 70 16 38 62-32 22 27 Michigan St BTe 5-1 .811 92 19 16 64-28 23 23 Kansas St B12 4-1 .803 79 20 28 63-29 24 26 Arizona St PACs 4-1 .796 44 9 64 61-37 25 29 Marshall USAe 6-0 .796 125 15 53 61-34 26 22 Louisville ACCa 5-2 .795 61 40 12 62-24 27 33 LSU SECw 5-2 .775 40 32 19 62-27 28 32 Virginia Tech ACCc 4-2 .774 37 49 9 61-21 29 25 Arkansas SECw 3-3 .769 8 25 22 62-28 30 17 Missouri SECe 4-2 .761 27 36 25 60-26 31 24 Brigham Young Xind 4-2 .759 29 31 33 60-28 32 34 East Carolina AA 5-1 .756 86 18 62 58-34 33 28 Georgia Tech ACCc 5-1 .748 59 39 55 56-30 34 38 Minnesota BTw 5-1 .747 60 65 30 55-23 35 35 South Carolina SECe 3-3 .734 5 22 37 61-31 36 31 Florida SECe 3-2 .734 13 52 14 59-22 37 37 Tennessee SECe 3-3 .730 14 42 26 60-26 38 50 Duke ACCc 5-1 .727 105 35 36 58-28 39 36 Wisconsin BTw 4-2 .714 96 29 20 62-27 40 43 West Virginia B12 4-2 .709 28 28 60 57-33 41 45 Iowa BTw 5-1 .707 93 60 23 57-22 42 42 Oregon St PACn 4-1 .704 71 45 48 56-28 43 39 Boise St MWm 4-2 .702 33 41 43 57-29 44 58 Washington PACn 5-1 .699 100 47 41 56-27 45 55 Colorado St MWm 5-1 .695 75 51 59 53-28 46 40 Maryland BTe 4-2 .688 53 46 40 57-27 47 53 Miami-Florida ACCc 4-3 .683 26 34 49 57-30 48 47 Kentucky SECe 5-1 .678 115 48 50 55-27 49 49 Rutgers BTe 5-1 .670 80 61 54 53-26 50 57 Central Florida AA 3-2 .670 30 50 34 56-25 51 44 Penn St BTe 4-2 .624 55 81 29 54-21 52 60 Utah St MWm 4-2 .618 62 74 42 53-24 53 52 Virginia ACCc 4-2 .617 49 71 52 52-25 54 56 Texas B12 2-4 .595 7 67 21 56-21 55 66 Boston College ACCa 4-2 .593 81 75 51 52-25 56 46 Memphis AA 3-3 .591 32 58 45 53-25 57 48 Northwestern BTw 3-3 .574 39 66 35 54-24 58 41 California PACn 4-2 .570 47 27 97 51-39 59 59 Temple AA 4-1 .556 126 63 57 52-27 60 51 Nevada MWw 3-3 .548 41 53 63 52-29 61 61 Louisiana Tech USAw 3-3 .542 23 59 67 50-29 62 72 Arkansas St SunB 4-2 .486 102 88 61 48-24 63 74 Houston AA 3-3 .486 88 56 46 54-26 64 63 Washington St PACn 2-5 .469 12 37 71 52-34 65 68 Pittsburgh ACCc 3-3 .463 97 62 56 52-26 66 62 Indiana BTe 3-3 .461 58 43 90 49-36 67 73 Michigan BTe 3-4 .461 48 76 47 52-24 68 54 Northern Ill MACw 4-2 .440 110 57 74 49-31 69 69 Ga Southern SunB 5-2 .434 127 77 76 47-30 70 77 Iowa St B12 2-4 .423 6 69 75 47-30 71 71 Syracuse ACCa 2-4 .417 11 79 58 50-25 72 65 Air Force MWm 4-2 .415 112 84 80 45-28 73 78 North Carolina ACCc 2-4 .414 17 38 92 49-37 74 64 N Carolina St ACCa 4-3 .413 77 80 77 46-29 75 70 Texas Tech B12 2-4 .407 19 44 84 50-35 76 82 Bowling Green MACe 5-2 .405 109 72 88 45-32 77 67 Cincinnati AA 2-3 .404 35 55 72 49-31 78 75 Navy Xind 3-4 .398 73 70 65 50-28 79 88 UA-Birmingham USAe 4-2 .397 113 68 107 43-34 80 85 Rice USAw 3-3 .390 68 83 82 45-28 81 83 Western Ky USAe 2-3 .360 78 54 101 46-35 82 79 Toledo MACw 4-3 .347 101 73 99 44-33 83 81 South Alabama SunB 3-2 .346 104 97 78 42-25 84 84 Akron MACe 4-2 .343 121 106 70 42-23 85 95 Central Mich MACw 4-3 .338 103 93 79 43-26 86 80 Middle Tenn USAe 4-3 .335 94 82 95 43-31 87 76 Fresno St MWw 3-4 .325 69 64 100 45-33 88 91 San Diego St MWw 3-3 .322 108 94 66 45-24 89 86 San Jose St MWw 2-3 .301 66 91 81 43-26 90 89 Colorado PACs 2-4 .297 54 78 87 45-31 91 90 UT-San Antonio USAw 2-4 .291 52 96 68 44-24 92 93 Illinois BTw 3-4 .281 64 85 102 42-31 93 92 Purdue BTw 3-4 .269 76 90 89 42-29 94 107 Western Mich MACw 3-3 .240 118 89 110 40-32 95 87 Wyoming MWm 3-3 .239 57 107 109 36-28 96 96 Florida Atl USAe 2-4 .228 38 104 93 39-26 97 102 Kansas B12 2-4 .225 34 118 73 38-21 98 97 Wake Forest ACCa 2-4 .221 51 117 69 39-20 99 99 Florida Int USAe 3-4 .218 111 112 83 39-24 100 103 Vanderbilt SECe 2-5 .216 20 105 85 40-26 101 100 La-Lafayette SunB 2-3 .205 95 87 105 41-31 102 109 UT-El Paso USAw 3-3 .204 98 102 117 35-31 103 104 La-Monroe SunB 3-3 .182 91 121 98 35-23 104 116 Hawaii MWw 2-4 .168 89 108 106 37-27 105 94 Army Xind 2-4 .167 84 98 115 37-31 106 106 South Florida AA 2-4 .167 72 116 86 38-24 107 105 Old Dominion USAe 3-4 .164 119 86 124 37-36 108 112 Texas St SunB 3-2 .158 128 100 112 36-30 109 117 Tulane AA 2-4 .158 90 113 96 37-25 110 98 Buffalo MACe 3-4 .152 124 92 114 38-32 111 113 Southern Miss USAw 2-4 .149 46 114 116 33-28 112 101 North Texas USAw 2-4 .145 116 95 104 39-29 113 108 Ohio U MACe 3-4 .144 107 123 91 35-22 114 110 New Mexico MWm 2-4 .118 106 101 120 34-32 115 118 Tulsa AA 1-5 .118 50 103 113 36-30 116 111 Ball St MACw 1-5 .115 117 99 103 39-28 117 114 SMU AA 0-5 .111 1 119 111 33-26 118 120 UN-Las Vegas MWw 2-5 .110 63 111 121 33-31 119 125 Massachusetts MACe 1-6 .088 99 110 119 33-30 120 123 Troy St SunB 1-5 .085 87 109 123 33-31 121 115 Connecticut AA 1-5 .085 85 122 94 35-23 122 127 Eastern Mich MACw 2-4 .070 74 128 126 25-31 123 121 Miami-Ohio MACe 1-6 .062 82 127 118 29-26 124 119 Kent St MACe 0-6 .055 67 125 108 32-24 125 122 Appalachian St SunB 1-5 .046 123 115 122 32-30 126 124 New Mexico St SunB 2-5 .040 122 120 128 25-33 127 126 Georgia St SunB 1-5 .030 120 126 127 24-32 128 128 Idaho SunB 0-6 .021 114 124 125 26-31 *****