Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Monday, September 8, 2014 (Week 2) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Note: A major revision of the preseason ratings is in effect. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Oregon PACn 2-0 .974 46 1 7 78-36 2 3 Auburn SECw 2-0 .965 37 2 5 76-32 3 7 Oklahoma B12 2-0 .950 55 6 3 73-28 4 4 Alabama SECw 2-0 .948 54 7 1 73-26 5 2 Florida St ACCa 2-0 .943 35 4 9 72-31 6 10 Southern Cal PACs 2-0 .933 9 13 4 69-25 7 9 Georgia SECe 1-0 .923 13 8 16 68-31 8 18 Brigham Young Xind 2-0 .919 20 14 8 68-26 9 11 Mississippi SECw 2-0 .918 25 17 6 68-25 10 8 Baylor B12 2-0 .893 120 3 23 70-36 11 6 Stanford PACn 1-1 .881 45 16 2 69-24 12 12 Texas A&M SECw 2-0 .878 68 5 37 66-37 13 37 Virginia Tech ACCc 2-0 .858 29 37 11 63-23 14 31 Notre Dame Xind 2-0 .851 47 34 13 63-24 15 5 Ohio St BTe 1-1 .847 6 10 20 65-31 16 15 LSU SECw 2-0 .846 59 19 14 64-27 17 24 Missouri SECe 2-0 .845 70 15 19 64-29 18 13 UCLA PACs 2-0 .845 31 11 25 63-31 19 14 Michigan St BTe 1-1 .836 15 23 10 65-24 20 23 Arizona St PACs 2-0 .809 110 9 47 63-36 21 20 Tennessee SECe 2-0 .800 61 28 26 60-28 22 19 Wisconsin BTw 1-1 .790 48 22 15 63-27 23 17 Mississippi St SECw 2-0 .789 108 29 17 62-26 24 35 Utah PACs 2-0 .787 109 18 29 61-30 25 21 Louisville ACCa 2-0 .786 93 26 27 61-28 26 16 Oklahoma St B12 1-1 .784 18 12 34 62-32 27 26 Arizona PACs 2-0 .779 56 21 38 60-30 28 33 South Carolina SECe 1-1 .759 12 27 24 61-28 29 25 Kansas St B12 2-0 .752 95 24 32 60-30 30 41 Northern Ill MACw 2-0 .750 83 20 44 59-31 31 29 TCU B12 1-0 .738 121 43 18 60-24 32 32 Florida SECe 1-0 .734 126 54 12 61-21 33 38 Penn St BTe 2-0 .733 41 59 22 57-23 34 30 Iowa BTw 2-0 .713 78 56 21 58-24 35 43 Boise St MWm 1-1 .707 11 38 30 58-27 36 27 Nebraska BTw 2-0 .705 98 31 43 57-30 37 34 Oregon St PACn 2-0 .699 92 33 45 57-30 38 36 Clemson ACCa 1-1 .696 33 30 35 59-29 39 42 Duke ACCc 2-0 .681 115 32 48 57-30 40 51 Pittsburgh ACCc 2-0 .679 104 48 41 56-27 41 48 Maryland BTe 2-0 .666 107 55 31 56-25 42 52 Georgia Tech ACCc 2-0 .666 100 42 53 55-30 43 40 Cincinnati AA 0-0 .664 26 44 36 57-27 44 22 Texas B12 1-1 .664 16 52 28 56-25 45 45 Arkansas SECw 1-1 .655 36 40 40 57-28 46 28 Michigan BTe 1-1 .652 27 47 39 57-27 47 39 Texas Tech B12 2-0 .643 85 25 64 55-34 48 44 Central Florida AA 0-1 .625 10 45 33 57-27 49 47 North Carolina ACCc 2-0 .617 99 46 60 54-30 50 50 California PACn 2-0 .616 87 39 68 53-33 51 62 Nevada MWw 2-0 .613 81 58 55 53-28 52 49 UT-San Antonio USAw 1-1 .607 7 70 46 52-25 53 55 West Virginia B12 1-1 .598 51 41 56 54-30 54 63 Navy Xind 1-1 .592 8 57 54 53-28 55 46 Washington PACn 2-0 .586 82 51 59 53-29 56 67 Kentucky SECe 2-0 .584 117 65 49 52-26 57 56 Syracuse ACCa 1-0 .578 84 60 51 53-27 58 57 Marshall USAe 2-0 .575 122 35 70 53-33 59 60 Minnesota BTw 2-0 .572 106 69 50 52-26 60 59 Houston AA 1-1 .561 96 50 42 55-27 61 53 East Carolina AA 1-1 .559 67 36 66 53-33 62 61 Miami-Florida ACCc 1-1 .540 60 53 57 53-29 63 58 Rutgers BTe 2-0 .533 73 64 67 50-29 64 69 Indiana BTe 1-0 .482 123 49 85 49-34 65 54 Temple AA 1-1 .478 44 75 62 49-26 66 65 Colorado St MWm 1-1 .473 21 68 71 48-29 67 100 Louisiana Tech USAw 1-1 .466 4 77 76 46-29 68 70 Utah St MWm 1-1 .452 52 83 52 49-24 69 76 Memphis AA 1-1 .452 75 71 63 49-27 70 88 Central Mich MACw 2-0 .445 86 82 75 46-28 71 66 Northwestern BTw 0-2 .438 17 66 58 51-27 72 81 Illinois BTw 2-0 .421 97 78 82 46-29 73 68 Western Ky USAe 1-1 .419 39 62 90 47-33 74 96 South Alabama SunB 1-0 .419 64 89 83 44-28 75 74 Virginia ACCc 1-1 .412 63 87 61 47-24 76 77 San Diego St MWw 1-1 .405 80 74 73 47-28 77 83 N Carolina St ACCa 2-0 .401 89 85 77 45-28 78 78 Ball St MACw 1-1 .395 66 81 74 46-28 79 72 Boston College ACCa 1-1 .389 65 86 65 46-25 80 71 Washington St PACn 0-2 .374 23 63 79 48-31 81 80 Bowling Green MACe 1-1 .368 101 79 69 47-27 82 92 North Texas USAw 1-1 .368 42 91 72 45-26 83 79 San Jose St MWw 1-1 .351 30 80 94 44-30 84 73 Toledo MACw 1-1 .345 77 67 99 45-32 85 75 Fresno St MWw 0-2 .343 2 61 104 45-35 86 64 La-Lafayette SunB 1-1 .288 114 73 96 45-31 87 82 Tulsa AA 1-1 .286 19 97 98 41-28 88 90 Arkansas St SunB 1-1 .286 69 100 78 42-25 89 95 Iowa St B12 0-2 .284 24 76 92 44-31 90 86 Middle Tenn USAe 1-1 .282 103 92 84 43-27 91 94 La-Monroe SunB 2-0 .264 113 110 91 39-26 92 108 Army Xind 1-0 .264 91 94 115 38-31 93 101 Rice USAw 0-1 .262 3 95 95 42-28 94 107 UA-Birmingham USAe 1-1 .260 38 84 116 39-33 95 93 Colorado PACs 1-1 .250 74 88 103 41-30 96 89 South Florida AA 1-1 .248 72 101 86 41-26 97 103 Connecticut AA 1-1 .248 43 103 87 40-26 98 85 Ohio U MACe 1-1 .243 28 115 81 40-23 99 112 Ga Southern SunB 1-1 .241 118 90 102 41-30 100 87 Air Force MWm 1-1 .233 116 96 97 41-28 101 91 Buffalo MACe 1-1 .213 102 93 109 40-30 102 105 Kansas B12 1-0 .213 119 118 100 37-24 103 99 Akron MACe 1-1 .209 90 112 88 39-25 104 97 Old Dominion USAe 1-1 .207 94 72 120 39-37 105 116 Wyoming MWm 2-0 .206 111 113 111 36-27 106 110 UT-El Paso USAw 1-1 .202 53 109 110 37-28 107 84 Purdue BTw 1-1 .191 88 99 108 38-29 108 111 Florida Atl USAe 0-2 .191 1 117 101 37-25 109 114 Wake Forest ACCa 1-1 .181 112 121 80 38-21 110 109 Texas St SunB 1-0 .180 128 107 107 38-28 111 102 Vanderbilt SECe 0-2 .180 14 111 93 39-25 112 113 Hawaii MWw 0-2 .173 22 102 112 37-29 113 118 Appalachian St SunB 1-1 .166 105 105 113 37-29 114 106 Tulane AA 0-2 .155 32 108 106 38-27 115 115 UN-Las Vegas MWw 1-1 .154 49 106 118 35-31 116 98 SMU AA 0-2 .150 5 119 105 36-26 117 104 Kent St MACe 0-2 .141 79 116 89 38-24 118 119 Southern Miss USAw 1-1 .119 50 120 117 32-28 119 117 Western Mich MACw 0-1 .110 62 104 119 35-31 120 123 Florida Int USAe 1-1 .102 125 123 114 33-25 121 120 New Mexico MWm 0-2 .096 40 98 125 33-35 122 121 Troy St SunB 0-2 .078 34 114 122 32-31 123 122 Idaho SunB 0-1 .061 58 122 124 29-30 124 125 New Mexico St SunB 2-0 .059 127 124 126 26-32 125 126 Massachusetts MACe 0-2 .042 71 126 121 27-26 126 127 Eastern Mich MACw 1-1 .039 57 125 128 23-33 127 124 Miami-Ohio MACe 0-2 .031 76 128 123 25-25 128 128 Georgia St SunB 1-1 .022 124 127 127 22-30 *****