Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion (of 295) in RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Combo-6 in Week-Zero for 2013 & 2014 Beck's "Smallest Deviation from Game Scores" in 2nd-Half 2014

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Monday, January 11, 2016 (Final) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Alabama SECw 14-1 .981 2 8 1 77-24 2 2 Clemson ACCa 14-1 .963 12 7 7 71-30 3 5 Stanford PACn 12-2 .947 8 10 4 70-28 4 6 Ohio St BTe 12-1 .947 50 4 2 74-28 5 3 Oklahoma B12 11-2 .935 21 3 8 73-32 6 4 Michigan St BTe 12-2 .926 14 26 9 65-25 7 7 Notre Dame Xind 10-3 .909 4 14 18 66-30 8 14 LSU SECw 9-3 .895 3 23 13 66-26 9 11 TCU B12 11-2 .888 47 5 31 68-35 10 12 Utah PACs 10-3 .887 19 31 14 64-25 11 16 Michigan BTe 10-3 .884 34 37 3 65-22 12 18 Mississippi SECw 10-3 .883 33 13 11 68-29 13 8 Iowa BTw 12-2 .867 60 49 22 60-25 14 10 North Carolina ACCc 11-3 .857 57 9 48 63-36 15 20 Baylor B12 10-3 .850 56 1 41 68-39 16 25 Mississippi St SECw 9-4 .848 25 16 20 65-29 17 9 Florida St ACCa 10-3 .847 58 29 10 65-25 18 15 Oregon PACn 9-4 .846 11 2 67 65-42 19 22 Houston AAw 13-1 .845 90 30 36 60-30 20 23 Tennessee SECe 9-4 .843 35 19 16 65-28 21 17 Florida SECe 10-4 .834 20 62 5 60-19 22 26 Georgia SECe 10-3 .830 52 33 15 63-25 23 13 Oklahoma St B12 10-3 .827 42 17 56 59-34 24 31 Arkansas SECw 8-5 .814 5 15 25 65-31 25 21 Southern Cal PACs 8-6 .812 1 18 19 65-29 26 27 Navy AAw 11-2 .808 82 35 43 58-30 27 19 Northwestern BTw 10-3 .804 46 83 21 54-19 28 30 Washington St PACn 9-4 .798 30 40 54 56-31 29 37 Wisconsin BTw 10-3 .790 66 56 6 62-21 30 32 Toledo MACw 10-2 .788 85 38 42 58-29 31 34 Western Ky USAe 12-2 .782 91 12 78 59-40 32 24 UCLA PACs 8-5 .782 16 25 29 62-29 33 38 California PACn 8-5 .778 9 11 61 61-38 34 29 Texas A&M SECw 8-5 .756 27 34 28 60-27 35 41 West Virginia B12 8-5 .744 36 36 24 61-27 36 33 Brigham Young Xind 9-4 .739 61 32 40 59-30 37 28 Pittsburgh ACCc 8-5 .733 29 47 39 57-28 38 43 Washington PACn 7-6 .731 22 44 12 62-23 39 45 Louisville ACCa 8-5 .707 41 48 34 58-27 40 35 Miami-Florida ACCc 8-5 .706 31 57 45 55-27 41 49 Auburn SECw 7-6 .705 10 45 32 58-27 42 36 Bowling Green MACe 10-4 .699 78 21 83 55-38 43 48 San Diego St MWw 11-3 .685 108 71 26 55-22 44 39 Temple AAe 10-4 .684 80 68 30 55-22 45 40 Memphis AAw 9-4 .674 71 27 63 57-34 46 42 Texas Tech B12 7-6 .666 28 6 102 55-46 47 44 Arizona St PACs 6-7 .646 13 20 59 59-35 48 51 Appalachian St SunB 11-2 .633 126 59 53 54-28 49 54 Boise St MWm 9-4 .632 93 28 37 60-30 50 46 Penn St BTe 7-6 .623 39 76 23 55-21 51 50 Virginia Tech ACCc 7-6 .615 53 52 33 57-26 52 47 South Florida AAe 8-5 .598 73 65 47 53-25 53 53 Texas B12 5-7 .586 6 66 38 54-24 54 61 Nebraska BTw 6-7 .581 44 24 51 59-33 55 52 N Carolina St ACCa 7-6 .576 63 42 58 55-31 56 57 Arizona PACs 7-6 .575 55 22 84 55-38 57 60 Western Mich MACw 8-5 .564 77 43 77 52-33 58 58 Duke ACCc 8-5 .555 74 61 64 52-29 59 69 Ga Southern SunB 9-4 .552 115 55 60 53-30 60 63 Marshall USAe 10-3 .537 128 63 49 53-27 61 68 Louisiana Tech USAw 9-4 .535 111 51 72 52-31 62 55 Kansas St B12 6-7 .526 40 58 57 53-29 63 67 Minnesota BTw 6-7 .519 38 79 46 51-24 64 56 Indiana BTe 6-7 .508 49 41 99 48-38 65 64 Southern Miss USAw 9-5 .495 110 50 80 51-33 66 65 Air Force MWm 8-6 .484 86 60 69 51-30 67 62 Arkansas St SunB 9-4 .473 121 46 93 48-37 68 59 Cincinnati AAe 7-6 .472 76 39 82 52-35 69 66 Northern Ill MACw 8-6 .458 87 64 75 49-29 70 73 Missouri SECe 5-7 .453 37 97 17 52-15 71 71 Ohio U MACe 8-5 .437 107 90 74 45-25 72 70 Central Mich MACw 7-6 .433 88 87 62 47-24 73 72 Utah St MWm 6-7 .422 69 72 66 50-27 74 74 Virginia ACCc 4-8 .419 23 77 68 49-27 75 75 Illinois BTw 5-7 .408 54 85 65 48-25 76 77 Vanderbilt SECe 4-8 .407 26 101 35 48-18 77 81 Akron MACe 8-5 .405 113 103 70 43-21 78 82 South Carolina SECe 3-9 .384 15 70 55 51-26 79 78 East Carolina AAe 5-7 .379 67 69 73 49-28 80 84 Kentucky SECe 5-7 .376 62 74 76 48-29 81 76 Connecticut AAe 6-7 .367 72 117 50 42-16 82 79 Middle Tenn USAe 7-6 .365 98 67 85 47-30 83 80 Iowa St B12 3-9 .363 17 73 79 47-29 84 83 Tulsa AAw 6-7 .350 79 53 120 43-40 85 86 Syracuse ACCa 4-8 .349 48 78 88 46-30 86 85 Georgia Tech ACCc 3-9 .348 32 54 44 56-27 87 89 Colorado PACs 4-9 .322 51 81 71 47-26 88 87 Colorado St MWm 7-6 .321 112 82 81 45-28 89 93 Nevada MWw 7-6 .317 109 92 86 42-26 90 88 Maryland BTe 3-9 .313 24 75 87 46-30 91 95 San Jose St MWw 6-7 .301 94 86 89 43-28 92 90 Rutgers BTe 4-8 .296 59 80 91 44-31 93 91 New Mexico MWm 7-6 .282 114 88 96 41-30 94 92 Wake Forest ACCa 3-9 .265 45 110 52 44-18 95 97 Oregon St PACn 2-10 .243 7 89 92 41-29 96 94 Georgia St SunB 6-7 .227 118 105 97 37-27 97 96 Boston College ACCa 3-9 .224 65 109 27 48-15 98 98 Buffalo MACe 5-7 .189 117 91 106 39-31 99 100 South Alabama SunB 5-7 .183 96 111 116 33-29 100 99 Purdue BTw 2-10 .183 43 84 100 41-31 101 101 Troy SunB 4-8 .168 106 95 98 39-29 102 102 Florida Int USAe 5-7 .158 124 112 94 37-25 103 103 Rice USAw 5-7 .152 120 96 112 36-31 104 106 Fresno St MWw 3-9 .136 75 100 118 35-31 105 104 SMU AAw 2-10 .130 64 94 122 33-34 106 108 Idaho SunB 4-8 .127 100 99 125 31-36 107 107 UT-El Paso USAw 5-7 .126 122 123 107 32-25 108 105 Ball St MACw 3-9 .125 84 104 108 35-28 109 111 UN-Las Vegas MWw 3-9 .120 92 93 119 36-32 110 109 Old Dominion USAe 5-7 .114 125 107 124 30-33 111 110 Massachusetts MACe 3-9 .109 95 106 104 36-28 112 112 Florida Atl USAe 3-9 .105 99 113 95 36-25 113 114 UT-San Antonio USAw 3-9 .099 104 122 105 32-25 114 118 Hawaii MWw 3-10 .097 83 115 109 33-26 115 116 Kent St MACe 3-9 .095 97 128 90 32-18 116 115 Tulane AAw 3-9 .094 89 121 114 31-26 117 117 Miami-Ohio MACe 3-9 .094 105 124 103 32-23 118 113 Kansas B12 0-12 .092 18 120 117 31-27 119 119 La-Lafayette SunB 4-8 .086 127 108 110 35-28 120 120 New Mexico St SunB 3-9 .085 103 98 128 29-38 121 122 Wyoming MWm 2-10 .070 81 118 115 31-27 122 121 Texas St SunB 3-9 .068 119 102 123 32-33 123 123 Army Xind 2-10 .064 116 116 101 34-25 124 124 North Texas USAw 1-11 .052 68 125 121 27-28 125 125 La-Monroe SunB 2-11 .046 101 126 113 29-24 126 126 Central Florida AAe 0-12 .035 70 119 111 32-26 127 127 Charlotte USAe 2-10 .030 123 127 126 24-29 128 128 Eastern Mich MACw 1-11 .030 102 114 127 26-34 *****