Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award in 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist", 2005-2008 Season Champion of RSFC College Football Pool for 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system) in 2011

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, November 22, 2014 (Week 13) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Alabama SECw 10-1 .960 14 9 1 75-25 2 2 Oregon PACn 10-1 .958 29 1 11 75-37 3 10 UCLA PACs 9-2 .941 1 11 22 67-31 4 3 Florida St ACCa 11-0 .941 51 6 21 69-32 5 7 TCU B12 9-1 .936 39 8 14 69-31 6 6 Mississippi St SECw 10-1 .932 48 14 4 69-27 7 5 Ohio St BTe 10-1 .930 49 3 25 71-36 8 8 Georgia SECe 9-2 .920 35 4 20 70-33 9 11 Baylor B12 9-1 .919 60 2 29 72-40 10 9 Auburn SECw 8-3 .917 2 5 9 70-31 11 4 Mississippi SECw 8-3 .910 9 27 2 69-21 12 13 Arizona St PACs 9-2 .899 31 10 43 64-35 13 14 Kansas St B12 8-2 .895 25 20 15 65-27 14 12 Oklahoma B12 8-3 .895 16 7 5 70-30 15 22 Arizona PACs 9-2 .886 26 22 30 62-30 16 18 Missouri SECe 9-2 .886 37 32 12 63-25 17 16 Georgia Tech ACCc 9-2 .868 56 17 39 62-32 18 20 Wisconsin BTw 9-2 .866 65 15 6 68-28 19 17 Michigan St BTe 9-2 .865 63 13 10 68-29 20 15 Southern Cal PACs 7-4 .839 8 24 16 65-27 21 24 Marshall USAe 11-0 .822 123 16 44 62-33 22 31 Louisville ACCa 8-3 .816 54 31 23 62-26 23 21 Nebraska BTw 8-3 .812 53 18 36 62-31 24 35 Arkansas SECw 6-5 .806 4 28 8 65-25 25 19 Utah PACs 7-4 .805 6 37 26 60-27 26 23 Notre Dame Xind 7-4 .792 22 29 33 61-29 27 32 Boise St MWm 9-2 .789 70 19 52 60-33 28 30 Texas A&M SECw 7-4 .784 17 12 54 61-36 29 29 LSU SECw 7-4 .777 20 40 7 63-23 30 25 Clemson ACCa 8-3 .772 57 47 18 60-23 31 33 Colorado St MWm 10-1 .771 98 42 56 54-30 32 38 Minnesota BTw 8-3 .766 55 54 32 56-24 33 27 West Virginia B12 6-5 .758 5 25 42 60-31 34 39 Stanford PACn 6-5 .739 21 44 3 65-19 35 36 Texas B12 6-5 .730 12 60 13 59-21 36 26 Miami-Florida ACCc 6-5 .723 19 33 34 59-28 37 43 Maryland BTe 7-4 .720 30 48 50 55-28 38 28 Duke ACCc 8-3 .706 76 41 45 57-28 39 37 Florida SECe 6-4 .703 45 49 17 60-22 40 40 Memphis AA 8-3 .699 85 52 38 56-25 41 34 Tennessee SECe 5-6 .694 3 38 31 59-27 42 41 South Carolina SECe 6-5 .693 28 23 47 60-32 43 49 Washington PACn 7-5 .675 43 46 37 57-26 44 44 Iowa BTw 7-4 .654 66 55 27 57-24 45 47 Utah St MWm 9-3 .652 95 78 28 54-21 46 52 Cincinnati AA 7-3 .643 82 35 57 56-32 47 45 Brigham Young Xind 7-4 .621 79 34 49 58-30 48 56 East Carolina AA 7-3 .615 93 30 65 55-34 49 61 North Carolina ACCc 6-5 .611 23 26 88 52-38 50 42 Louisiana Tech USAw 7-4 .609 78 58 59 51-29 51 55 Boston College ACCa 6-5 .606 52 71 48 52-24 52 54 Central Florida AA 7-3 .596 96 56 40 55-25 53 51 Rutgers BTe 6-5 .592 32 74 60 49-26 54 48 California PACn 5-6 .590 11 21 96 53-40 55 64 Virginia ACCc 5-6 .575 24 75 41 53-23 56 50 Penn St BTe 6-5 .568 61 87 24 54-18 57 46 Virginia Tech ACCc 5-6 .558 42 79 19 56-19 58 62 Northwestern BTw 5-6 .549 36 69 46 53-24 59 53 Nevada MWw 6-5 .531 67 53 64 51-30 60 65 Northern Ill MACw 9-2 .528 121 61 73 48-31 61 57 Air Force MWm 8-3 .525 108 76 70 47-28 62 59 Oklahoma St B12 5-6 .523 27 45 61 53-30 63 66 Rice USAw 7-4 .506 91 85 68 47-26 64 63 Kentucky SECe 5-6 .498 44 63 66 50-29 65 70 Western Mich MACw 8-3 .491 122 68 79 47-31 66 58 Oregon St PACn 5-6 .482 41 57 63 51-29 67 60 Michigan BTe 5-6 .476 50 80 35 53-22 68 67 Ga Southern SunB 8-3 .475 125 62 77 48-31 69 69 N Carolina St ACCa 6-5 .463 68 73 72 47-29 70 77 Toledo MACw 7-4 .444 97 66 87 46-32 71 79 Pittsburgh ACCc 5-6 .429 72 51 62 52-29 72 73 Houston AA 6-4 .425 112 64 51 53-26 73 72 Navy Xind 5-5 .419 83 50 67 51-31 74 82 Illinois BTw 5-6 .408 46 83 91 44-30 75 80 Texas Tech B12 4-7 .407 18 39 105 48-37 76 76 Temple AA 5-5 .403 87 86 53 49-23 77 71 Washington St PACn 3-8 .396 10 36 89 50-36 78 74 Bowling Green MACe 7-4 .388 106 82 81 44-29 79 83 Western Ky USAe 6-5 .372 105 43 114 46-38 80 87 San Diego St MWw 6-5 .371 100 94 58 46-23 81 68 La-Lafayette SunB 7-4 .365 115 77 93 44-31 82 94 Fresno St MWw 5-6 .348 75 65 101 45-33 83 78 UT-El Paso USAw 6-5 .342 99 93 99 40-28 84 75 Arkansas St SunB 6-5 .340 113 84 78 45-29 85 84 Kansas B12 3-8 .323 15 108 69 41-22 86 90 Middle Tenn USAe 6-5 .320 94 88 102 42-30 87 81 Central Mich MACw 7-5 .313 116 96 74 43-25 88 88 UA-Birmingham USAe 5-6 .309 86 81 112 41-33 89 92 Colorado PACs 2-9 .295 7 67 95 46-32 90 95 Indiana BTe 3-8 .288 38 59 107 45-35 91 91 South Alabama SunB 6-5 .286 103 110 76 40-23 92 86 Iowa St B12 2-8 .275 13 70 100 44-32 93 85 Syracuse ACCa 3-8 .267 40 95 55 47-21 94 93 Wyoming MWm 4-7 .259 58 101 110 37-28 95 89 Purdue BTw 3-8 .255 47 89 92 42-29 96 96 Vanderbilt SECe 3-8 .239 33 100 83 40-25 97 102 Appalachian St SunB 6-5 .236 124 91 106 41-30 98 108 Old Dominion USAe 5-6 .204 104 72 124 37-39 99 98 South Florida AA 4-7 .198 73 115 80 38-22 100 109 Texas St SunB 6-5 .198 126 99 111 38-29 101 97 Tulane AA 3-8 .184 59 116 85 37-23 102 113 Wake Forest ACCa 3-8 .181 62 123 71 38-19 103 110 Akron MACe 5-6 .180 120 113 82 38-23 104 103 Hawaii MWw 4-8 .177 88 109 98 37-25 105 100 Florida Atl USAe 3-8 .176 69 102 104 38-27 106 99 Ohio U MACe 5-6 .175 110 118 84 36-22 107 105 Southern Miss USAw 3-8 .167 64 111 113 35-27 108 101 San Jose St MWw 3-8 .162 77 103 90 40-26 109 107 New Mexico MWm 3-8 .153 80 90 121 37-35 110 112 La-Monroe SunB 4-7 .152 102 117 86 36-22 111 106 Florida Int USAe 4-8 .151 107 114 94 37-24 112 104 UT-San Antonio USAw 3-8 .141 84 119 75 38-20 113 114 Ball St MACw 4-7 .131 117 97 108 39-29 114 116 Army Xind 4-7 .120 111 106 120 34-31 115 115 Buffalo MACe 4-6 .115 128 92 116 37-32 116 111 Massachusetts MACe 3-8 .114 109 105 115 35-29 117 117 Tulsa AA 2-9 .103 71 98 117 36-31 118 119 North Texas USAw 4-7 .102 119 107 109 37-27 119 118 Connecticut AA 2-8 .088 81 120 97 35-23 120 120 UN-Las Vegas MWw 2-10 .082 74 104 123 33-32 121 121 Miami-Ohio MACe 2-9 .080 89 121 118 31-27 122 122 Troy St SunB 3-8 .077 114 112 122 31-30 123 123 SMU AA 0-10 .062 34 127 119 29-26 124 124 Kent St MACe 1-9 .048 92 125 103 34-22 125 125 Eastern Mich MACw 2-9 .046 90 128 126 23-29 126 127 Georgia St SunB 1-10 .027 101 126 127 24-32 127 126 New Mexico St SunB 2-9 .022 127 124 128 24-32 128 128 Idaho SunB 1-9 .021 118 122 125 27-31 *****