Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award, 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist," 2005-2008 Season Champion (of 295) in RSFC College Football Pool, 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system), 2011 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Combo-6 in Week-Zero, 2013 & 2014 Beck's "Smallest Deviation from Game Scores," 2nd-Half 2014 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Correlations in Week-Zero, 2015 Beck's "Most Straight Up Winners" (579-201, 74.2%), 2017 Record of 103-37 (99.79%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2017 Record of 101-38 (99.9%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2018

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, December 8, 2018 (end of Week 15) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Alabama SECw 13-0 .983 31 2 2 82-30 2 2 Clemson ACCa 13-0 .976 42 4 1 80-27 3 3 Notre Dame Xind 12-0 .970 35 10 7 71-26 4 4 Georgia SECe 11-2 .955 7 5 3 75-29 5 5 Oklahoma B12 12-1 .951 24 1 50 71-44 6 6 Ohio St BTe 12-1 .941 43 3 22 71-37 7 7 Michigan BTe 10-2 .940 15 12 6 71-25 8 8 Central Florida AAe 12-0 .901 90 7 35 65-34 9 9 LSU SECw 9-3 .895 11 26 12 64-24 10 10 Washington PACn 10-3 .888 34 37 4 66-20 11 11 Washington St PACn 10-2 .872 61 17 28 62-30 12 12 Penn St BTe 9-3 .870 37 9 16 67-30 13 13 West Virginia B12 8-3 .860 39 6 44 65-36 14 14 Missouri SECe 8-4 .856 6 8 29 65-33 15 15 Texas B12 9-4 .852 5 28 20 62-26 16 16 Kentucky SECe 9-3 .850 40 52 14 60-21 17 17 Utah PACs 9-4 .841 22 38 11 63-23 18 18 Florida SECe 9-3 .834 48 29 18 62-26 19 19 Texas A&M SECw 8-4 .829 4 13 32 62-31 20 20 Stanford PACn 8-4 .821 17 20 21 63-27 21 21 Fresno St MWw 11-2 .821 83 42 9 63-21 22 22 Mississippi St SECw 8-4 .821 30 35 5 67-20 23 23 Syracuse ACCa 9-3 .817 58 14 55 59-34 24 24 Iowa BTw 8-4 .803 49 30 13 64-24 25 25 Iowa St B12 8-4 .785 26 51 19 58-23 26 26 N Carolina St ACCa 9-3 .780 66 19 39 61-30 27 27 Boise St MWm 10-3 .779 70 23 30 60-29 28 28 Northwestern BTw 8-5 .749 9 56 23 57-23 29 29 Cincinnati AAe 10-2 .747 96 61 25 56-23 30 30 Auburn SECw 7-5 .734 20 41 10 63-22 31 31 Pittsburgh ACCc 7-6 .730 2 48 43 55-26 32 35 Army Xind 10-2 .728 94 86 27 53-21 33 32 South Carolina SECe 7-5 .718 25 31 36 59-29 34 33 Michigan St BTe 7-5 .718 16 77 8 59-17 35 34 Utah St MWm 10-2 .717 116 15 58 58-34 36 36 Purdue BTw 6-6 .697 8 25 41 59-30 37 37 Duke ACCc 7-5 .689 33 50 40 55-26 38 38 Appalachian St SunB 10-2 .683 122 58 26 56-24 39 39 Oregon PACn 8-4 .680 67 18 54 58-33 40 40 Arizona St PACs 7-5 .675 46 27 59 56-32 41 41 Boston College ACCa 7-5 .668 51 45 31 57-26 42 42 Temple AAe 8-4 .665 74 47 48 55-27 43 43 Vanderbilt SECe 6-6 .659 10 54 45 54-26 44 44 Miami-Florida ACCc 7-5 .654 60 44 15 61-22 45 45 Georgia Tech ACCc 7-5 .653 52 22 60 56-33 46 46 Wisconsin BTw 7-5 .648 54 36 24 60-27 47 47 Virginia ACCc 7-5 .627 65 74 34 54-23 48 48 Buffalo MACe 10-3 .624 112 57 74 50-30 49 49 TCU B12 6-6 .613 21 67 17 57-21 50 50 California PACn 7-5 .596 55 73 37 53-23 51 51 Oklahoma St B12 6-6 .595 47 11 65 59-37 52 52 Minnesota BTw 6-6 .577 41 65 49 53-26 53 53 Ga Southern SunB 9-3 .557 120 87 66 47-26 54 54 Baylor B12 6-6 .552 45 55 68 51-30 55 55 Houston AAw 8-4 .544 105 24 90 52-37 56 56 Maryland BTe 5-7 .542 13 46 69 52-30 57 58 Northern Ill MACw 8-5 .532 68 102 51 48-22 58 57 Ohio U MACe 8-4 .532 113 32 78 53-35 59 59 Southern Cal PACs 5-7 .530 19 49 38 56-26 60 61 Wake Forest ACCa 6-6 .528 53 40 76 52-33 61 60 Troy SunB 9-3 .528 121 94 56 48-24 62 62 Kansas St B12 5-7 .526 28 68 42 53-24 63 63 UA-Birmingham USAw 10-3 .525 125 84 62 49-25 64 64 Middle Tenn USAe 8-5 .520 82 76 70 48-27 65 65 Indiana BTe 5-7 .513 12 59 71 50-29 66 66 Brigham Young Xind 6-6 .511 64 90 33 52-21 67 67 Texas Tech B12 5-7 .507 44 21 67 55-34 68 68 Florida St ACCa 5-7 .506 3 69 53 51-26 69 69 Memphis AAw 8-5 .503 102 16 93 53-39 70 70 Tennessee SECe 5-7 .497 23 85 57 49-25 71 71 Virginia Tech ACCc 6-6 .491 57 53 61 52-29 72 72 Marshall USAe 8-4 .491 111 91 52 49-23 73 73 Mississippi SECw 5-7 .482 38 33 92 51-37 74 74 Arkansas St SunB 8-4 .481 117 70 77 48-29 75 75 North Texas USAw 9-3 .475 130 60 85 48-31 76 76 San Diego St MWw 7-5 .463 78 103 46 49-21 77 77 Nebraska BTw 4-8 .451 29 43 72 52-32 78 78 Arizona PACs 5-7 .444 56 39 82 52-34 79 79 Eastern Mich MACw 7-5 .418 109 105 64 45-23 80 80 Colorado PACs 5-7 .405 59 82 63 49-26 81 81 Nevada MWw 7-5 .404 95 79 81 47-29 82 82 Florida Int USAe 8-4 .402 127 81 96 44-30 83 83 Tulane AAw 6-6 .402 75 99 75 45-26 84 84 Toledo MACw 7-5 .396 115 34 98 50-37 85 85 Wyoming MWm 6-6 .396 76 114 47 45-18 86 86 UCLA PACs 3-9 .395 1 63 79 48-30 87 87 Miami-Ohio MACe 6-6 .394 81 93 73 46-26 88 88 South Florida AAe 7-5 .379 91 75 97 45-31 89 89 Hawaii MWw 8-5 .378 100 92 114 38-34 90 90 Western Mich MACw 7-5 .374 101 62 104 44-35 91 91 La-Lafayette SunB 7-6 .365 89 72 109 41-35 92 92 Louisiana Tech USAw 7-5 .320 118 104 84 43-26 93 93 Florida Atl USAe 5-7 .309 79 64 83 48-30 94 95 SMU AAw 5-7 .309 71 71 105 43-34 95 94 Air Force MWm 5-7 .309 87 66 86 47-31 96 96 Kansas B12 3-9 .283 36 100 88 43-27 97 97 Illinois BTw 4-8 .267 62 97 106 39-32 98 98 La-Monroe SunB 6-6 .259 110 95 107 39-32 99 99 Southern Miss USAw 6-5 .253 129 109 80 42-24 100 100 Arkansas SECw 2-10 .218 27 88 91 44-29 101 101 North Carolina ACCc 2-9 .210 50 78 89 46-30 102 102 Liberty Xind 6-6 .205 123 101 124 35-35 103 103 Navy AAw 3-10 .187 63 98 94 43-28 104 104 Oregon St PACn 2-10 .186 18 89 123 37-36 105 105 Louisville ACCa 2-10 .182 14 80 112 40-35 106 106 Charlotte USAe 5-7 .175 106 125 100 34-22 107 107 CoastalCarolina SunB 5-7 .171 108 112 110 35-29 108 108 UN-Las Vegas MWw 4-8 .140 99 96 121 36-35 109 109 East Carolina AAe 3-9 .139 73 111 116 34-31 110 110 Akron MACe 4-8 .137 85 124 95 35-21 111 111 Tulsa AAw 3-9 .131 80 106 99 40-28 112 112 Ball St MACw 4-8 .129 97 115 115 33-30 113 113 Massachusetts Xind 4-8 .122 98 83 128 35-39 114 114 Rutgers BTe 1-11 .122 32 120 87 38-21 115 115 Colorado St MWm 3-9 .119 77 110 108 36-29 116 116 New Mexico MWm 3-9 .114 84 108 113 35-30 117 117 Bowling Green MACe 3-9 .100 86 113 125 32-32 118 118 Western Ky USAe 3-9 .086 114 121 101 35-24 119 119 Old Dominion USAe 4-8 .080 126 107 122 33-33 120 120 South Alabama SunB 3-9 .074 104 122 120 30-28 121 121 UT-San Antonio USAw 3-9 .071 103 129 103 29-20 122 122 San Jose St MWw 1-11 .069 69 116 118 32-29 123 123 Kent St MACe 2-10 .062 92 123 117 30-27 124 124 Georgia St SunB 2-10 .058 88 119 119 31-28 125 125 New Mexico St Xind 3-9 .050 119 117 129 28-32 126 126 Texas St SunB 3-9 .048 128 128 111 29-23 127 127 Connecticut AAe 1-11 .044 72 118 130 26-34 128 128 Central Mich MACw 1-11 .035 93 126 102 32-21 129 129 Rice USAw 2-11 .033 107 127 127 25-27 130 130 UT-El Paso USAw 1-11 .014 124 130 126 23-25 *****