Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award, 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist," 2005-2008 Season Champion (of 295) in RSFC College Football Pool, 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system), 2011 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Combo-6 in Week-Zero, 2013 & 2014 Beck's "Smallest Deviation from Game Scores," 2nd-Half 2014 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Correlations in Week-Zero, 2015 Beck's "Most Straight Up Winners" (579-201, 74.2%), 2017 Record of 103-37 (99.8%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2017 Record of 101-38 (99.9%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2018 Ranked 4th (of 180) in RSFC College Football Pool, 2018 Record of 114-36 (99.8%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2019

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, December 14, 2019 (end of regular season) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Ohio St BTe 13-0 .992 12 1 3 84-34 2 2 LSU SECw 13-0 .989 5 3 10 78-33 3 3 Clemson ACCa 13-0 .972 61 5 1 81-27 4 4 Oklahoma B12 12-1 .959 30 4 25 72-38 5 5 Georgia SECe 11-2 .956 15 10 2 74-22 6 6 Florida SECe 10-2 .943 22 12 7 71-25 7 7 Alabama SECw 10-2 .942 52 2 11 79-34 8 8 Oregon PACn 11-2 .941 36 7 13 70-28 9 9 Wisconsin BTw 10-3 .937 3 11 9 71-25 10 10 Auburn SECw 9-3 .935 2 15 6 70-25 11 11 Utah PACs 11-2 .934 51 19 4 70-22 12 12 Penn St BTe 10-2 .934 33 13 8 70-25 13 13 Michigan BTe 9-3 .924 4 9 12 70-26 14 14 Notre Dame Xind 10-2 .918 46 14 14 68-27 15 15 Baylor B12 11-2 .913 49 22 17 64-27 16 16 Memphis AAw 12-1 .902 73 8 47 62-35 17 17 Minnesota BTw 10-2 .884 54 24 28 62-29 18 18 Iowa BTw 9-3 .878 27 45 5 64-18 19 19 Boise St MWm 12-1 .857 94 26 31 61-29 20 20 Southern Cal PACs 8-4 .846 6 20 34 62-31 21 21 Appalachian St SunB 12-1 .842 108 27 29 60-28 22 25 Navy AAw 10-2 .831 75 29 46 57-30 23 22 Cincinnati AAe 10-3 .822 57 52 19 59-23 24 23 SMU AAw 10-2 .819 74 17 83 55-38 25 24 Air Force MWm 10-2 .812 84 30 37 58-28 26 26 Oklahoma St B12 8-4 .802 32 21 44 60-32 27 27 Iowa St B12 7-5 .778 17 25 21 62-27 28 28 Kansas St B12 8-4 .773 47 44 23 59-24 29 29 Texas B12 7-5 .772 11 18 36 62-31 30 31 Central Florida AAe 9-3 .759 86 6 43 63-35 31 30 Washington PACn 7-5 .759 45 28 15 64-23 32 32 Texas A&M SECw 7-5 .755 16 23 22 62-28 33 33 Virginia ACCc 9-4 .743 59 38 41 57-28 34 34 Florida Atl USAe 10-3 .734 90 34 54 55-30 35 35 Indiana BTe 8-4 .716 60 32 48 56-29 36 36 La-Lafayette SunB 10-3 .693 106 33 58 55-30 37 37 Virginia Tech ACCc 8-4 .690 69 35 45 56-29 38 38 Tennessee SECe 7-5 .688 40 61 30 55-23 39 39 Arizona St PACs 7-5 .683 44 51 42 55-26 40 40 California PACn 7-5 .682 24 86 24 53-19 41 41 Wake Forest ACCa 8-4 .674 62 36 71 52-32 42 42 Michigan St BTe 6-6 .657 14 71 16 57-19 43 43 Mississippi St SECw 6-6 .651 10 40 32 57-26 44 44 Louisville ACCa 7-5 .640 38 31 97 50-36 45 45 San Diego St MWw 9-3 .635 111 116 18 50-14 46 46 Pittsburgh ACCc 7-5 .627 41 84 33 52-20 47 47 North Carolina ACCc 6-6 .619 48 37 50 55-29 48 48 Kentucky SECe 7-5 .614 63 68 20 56-20 49 49 TCU B12 5-7 .585 19 42 26 58-25 50 50 Temple AAe 8-4 .576 82 81 53 50-24 51 52 Florida St ACCa 6-6 .569 43 55 51 53-27 52 51 Western Ky USAe 8-4 .568 99 100 52 47-22 53 53 Washington St PACn 6-6 .568 55 16 64 58-36 54 55 Boston College ACCa 6-6 .542 56 46 66 52-31 55 54 Hawaii MWw 9-5 .541 76 48 99 47-35 56 56 Missouri SECe 6-6 .538 58 49 35 56-25 57 57 Miami-Florida ACCc 6-6 .519 67 64 27 56-22 58 58 Brigham Young Xind 7-5 .516 72 74 49 51-24 59 59 Colorado PACs 5-7 .509 7 79 65 48-27 60 60 Oregon St PACn 5-7 .505 29 43 94 48-34 61 61 Utah St MWm 7-5 .503 71 57 75 49-31 62 62 South Carolina SECe 4-8 .501 1 60 38 54-25 63 63 Nebraska BTw 5-7 .501 34 41 59 53-30 64 64 West Virginia B12 5-7 .491 13 66 61 50-27 65 65 Wyoming MWm 7-5 .490 93 107 39 49-19 66 66 Tulane AAw 6-6 .489 66 58 63 51-29 67 67 Marshall USAe 8-4 .485 103 97 60 47-23 68 68 Ga Southern SunB 7-5 .480 77 82 72 47-27 69 69 Duke ACCc 5-7 .472 42 65 56 51-27 70 70 Illinois BTw 6-6 .469 65 69 76 47-29 71 71 Mississippi SECw 4-8 .459 20 47 57 53-29 72 72 Louisiana Tech USAw 9-3 .451 130 77 81 46-29 73 73 Miami-Ohio MACe 8-5 .446 83 105 82 43-26 74 74 Southern Miss USAw 7-5 .432 95 85 68 46-26 75 75 UCLA PACs 4-8 .427 8 53 79 50-32 76 76 Stanford PACn 4-8 .406 9 76 55 50-25 77 78 Buffalo MACe 7-5 .393 122 75 74 47-28 78 77 UA-Birmingham USAw 9-4 .393 128 110 67 44-23 79 79 Central Mich MACw 8-5 .391 121 96 86 43-27 80 80 Texas Tech B12 4-8 .388 50 39 70 52-32 81 81 Purdue BTw 4-8 .384 26 56 69 50-30 82 82 Arkansas St SunB 7-5 .381 104 67 104 44-33 83 83 Western Mich MACw 7-5 .372 117 63 93 46-32 84 84 Georgia St SunB 7-5 .361 107 87 118 39-33 85 85 Syracuse ACCa 5-7 .360 64 59 78 49-31 86 86 Charlotte USAe 7-5 .349 113 98 106 40-30 87 87 Tulsa AAw 4-8 .347 37 83 80 45-28 88 90 Houston AAw 4-8 .338 53 50 91 48-34 89 88 Nevada MWw 7-5 .338 101 112 103 39-27 90 89 Arizona PACs 4-8 .337 31 62 90 47-32 91 91 Kent St MACe 6-6 .327 85 104 107 39-29 92 92 Maryland BTe 3-9 .281 28 70 87 46-31 93 93 Ohio U MACe 6-6 .281 120 54 89 48-33 94 94 Kansas B12 3-9 .270 23 91 98 42-29 95 95 La-Monroe SunB 5-7 .270 80 72 121 39-36 96 96 Northwestern BTw 3-9 .263 35 108 40 48-19 97 97 Liberty Xind 7-5 .252 129 95 111 39-31 98 98 Ball St MACw 5-7 .251 105 78 108 42-33 99 99 Eastern Mich MACw 6-6 .245 114 106 100 40-28 100 101 Georgia Tech ACCc 3-9 .237 25 102 92 42-27 101 100 San Jose St MWw 5-7 .236 97 94 113 39-32 102 102 South Florida AAe 4-8 .234 68 111 84 41-25 103 103 Florida Int USAe 6-6 .224 123 101 95 41-28 104 104 N Carolina St ACCa 4-8 .216 70 93 77 44-26 105 105 Fresno St MWw 4-8 .205 88 80 73 47-27 106 106 Middle Tenn USAe 4-8 .201 79 92 96 42-29 107 107 Troy SunB 5-7 .196 116 73 109 42-33 108 109 Toledo MACw 6-6 .196 118 88 117 39-33 109 110 Arkansas SECw 2-10 .196 18 90 102 41-30 110 111 Vanderbilt SECe 3-9 .193 39 114 88 40-25 111 112 Northern Ill MACw 5-7 .189 102 117 85 39-24 112 108 Army Xind 5-8 .180 115 103 62 46-23 113 113 Colorado St MWm 4-8 .158 96 99 110 39-31 114 114 CoastalCarolina SunB 5-7 .157 125 109 112 37-29 115 115 Rutgers BTe 2-10 .142 21 120 101 34-23 116 116 East Carolina AAe 4-8 .120 109 113 122 35-31 117 117 UN-Las Vegas MWw 4-8 .115 100 115 123 34-31 118 118 North Texas USAw 4-8 .111 119 89 114 39-32 119 119 Rice USAw 3-9 .097 87 122 105 33-22 120 120 UT-San Antonio USAw 4-8 .087 112 123 119 29-26 121 121 Texas St SunB 3-9 .076 92 127 116 30-23 122 122 Bowling Green MACe 3-9 .055 110 128 126 24-29 123 123 South Alabama SunB 2-10 .055 91 124 115 31-24 124 125 Connecticut AAe 2-10 .051 78 121 129 25-31 125 124 New Mexico MWm 2-10 .051 81 118 124 31-30 126 126 New Mexico St Xind 2-10 .048 89 119 127 28-32 127 127 Old Dominion USAe 1-11 .025 98 125 120 29-25 128 128 UT-El Paso USAw 1-11 .008 127 129 128 21-26 129 129 Massachusetts Xind 1-11 .005 126 126 130 14-40 130 130 Akron MACe 0-12 .004 124 130 125 18-21 *****