Ken Ashby's AccuRatings

NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings

Winner of Todd Beck's "Best Predictive System" award, 2004 Selected as component of Ray Waits' "Superlist," 2005-2008 Season Champion (of 295) in RSFC College Football Pool, 2007 Beck's "Most Accurate Predictor" (independent system), 2011 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Combo-6 in Week-Zero, 2013 & 2014 Beck's "Smallest Deviation from Game Scores," 2nd-Half 2014 Ranked # 1 by John Wobus Correlations in Week-Zero, 2015 Beck's "Most Straight Up Winners" (579-201, 74.2%), 2017 Record of 103-37 (99.79%ile) in ESPN College Pick 'Em, 2017

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***** Ken Ashby's NCAA FBS (Div. I-A) Football AccuRatings through Saturday, September 15, 2018 (Week 3) NCAA Football Home Advantage = 3 points To predict point spread, subtract PS ratings after adding 3 points to home team. To predict over/under, add OU ratings. Rnk Prv Team Conf W-L Pct Sch Off Def PS-OU 1 1 Alabama SECw 3-0 .990 12 1 1 83-28 2 4 Ohio St BTe 3-0 .959 47 3 11 75-34 3 2 Georgia SECe 3-0 .959 61 5 3 75-27 4 3 Oklahoma B12 3-0 .957 29 2 20 74-36 5 6 Clemson ACCa 3-0 .942 49 7 2 73-24 6 7 Penn St BTe 3-0 .932 58 4 19 71-34 7 5 Stanford PACn 3-0 .912 51 16 6 68-24 8 10 Mississippi St SECw 3-0 .900 103 8 10 69-28 9 19 LSU SECw 3-0 .897 6 37 7 64-22 10 20 Oklahoma St B12 3-0 .892 87 6 26 67-34 11 18 Washington PACn 2-1 .892 14 17 4 68-23 12 8 Auburn SECw 2-1 .888 23 10 5 69-24 13 15 Duke ACCc 3-0 .880 17 30 17 63-24 14 12 Notre Dame Xind 3-0 .869 31 21 16 64-25 15 13 Virginia Tech ACCc 2-0 .864 85 26 13 65-24 16 17 Michigan BTe 2-1 .846 33 27 8 66-23 17 9 Wisconsin BTw 2-1 .843 78 11 9 67-26 18 14 Iowa BTw 3-0 .841 80 34 15 63-23 19 16 TCU B12 2-1 .830 41 22 14 65-25 20 11 Boise St MWm 2-1 .817 28 12 24 64-29 21 34 Miami-Florida ACCc 2-1 .814 55 18 18 65-27 22 21 Michigan St BTe 1-1 .791 7 35 12 63-23 23 27 Boston College ACCa 3-0 .787 102 24 32 61-29 24 22 Central Florida AAe 2-0 .783 125 9 36 62-33 25 25 West Virginia B12 2-0 .780 112 13 40 60-32 26 31 Texas A&M SECw 2-1 .768 77 19 29 62-29 27 37 Texas B12 2-1 .764 36 32 22 61-26 28 29 Missouri SECe 3-0 .757 90 14 50 59-34 29 33 California PACn 3-0 .722 74 38 41 57-29 30 35 South Carolina SECe 1-1 .721 8 36 31 59-27 31 32 Washington St PACn 3-0 .718 119 43 34 57-27 32 49 Fresno St MWw 2-1 .716 72 45 23 59-25 33 56 Syracuse ACCa 3-0 .708 98 29 57 56-32 34 44 Minnesota BTw 3-0 .706 96 67 25 56-22 35 23 Utah PACs 2-1 .699 52 57 21 58-22 36 28 Oregon PACn 3-0 .692 129 15 51 59-34 37 38 Kentucky SECe 3-0 .691 99 53 38 55-26 38 36 N Carolina St ACCa 2-0 .690 126 31 39 57-29 39 60 Brigham Young Xind 2-1 .690 4 73 27 54-21 40 39 Vanderbilt SECe 2-1 .688 32 51 35 56-26 41 26 Arizona St PACs 2-1 .676 34 28 56 56-32 42 55 Indiana BTe 3-0 .668 76 52 47 53-28 43 41 South Florida AAe 3-0 .666 86 33 64 54-32 44 30 Mississippi SECw 2-1 .664 16 20 76 55-36 45 24 Southern Cal PACs 1-2 .658 5 46 28 58-25 46 48 Appalachian St SunB 1-1 .637 11 54 42 54-27 47 42 Colorado PACs 3-0 .631 105 62 46 53-27 48 40 Wake Forest ACCa 2-1 .613 75 40 49 55-30 49 69 North Texas USAw 3-0 .603 116 44 81 51-33 50 62 San Diego St MWw 2-1 .602 25 70 37 53-24 51 47 Louisville ACCa 2-1 .596 43 39 63 54-31 52 64 Florida SECe 2-1 .592 113 56 33 56-25 53 50 Iowa St B12 0-2 .582 1 63 30 56-23 54 45 Houston AAw 2-1 .579 56 50 62 52-30 55 53 Cincinnati AAe 3-0 .575 118 80 45 50-24 56 61 Memphis AAw 2-1 .571 122 23 67 55-35 57 57 Utah St MWm 2-1 .557 114 42 61 54-31 58 66 Texas Tech B12 2-1 .550 92 25 85 53-36 59 71 Arkansas St SunB 2-1 .546 19 61 71 50-30 60 65 Kansas St B12 2-1 .543 67 55 54 53-28 61 58 Florida Atl USAe 2-1 .536 38 58 66 51-30 62 63 Marshall USAe 2-0 .533 117 79 52 50-25 63 46 Northwestern BTw 1-2 .516 18 60 44 53-26 64 54 Baylor B12 2-1 .510 89 49 74 51-32 65 75 Pittsburgh ACCc 2-1 .509 46 84 48 50-24 66 72 Buffalo MACe 3-0 .507 106 72 77 47-29 67 51 Georgia Tech ACCc 1-2 .506 63 47 53 54-29 68 79 Virginia ACCc 2-1 .500 79 78 55 49-25 69 43 Maryland BTe 2-1 .488 45 64 80 49-30 70 67 Louisiana Tech USAw 2-0 .471 128 66 83 48-30 71 52 Florida St ACCa 1-2 .451 24 76 43 51-24 72 73 Army Xind 2-1 .447 57 100 58 47-23 73 103 Akron MACe 2-0 .430 107 106 72 44-24 74 86 Troy SunB 2-1 .426 73 83 70 47-27 75 59 Toledo MACw 1-1 .420 101 48 84 50-32 76 96 Kansas B12 2-1 .412 100 86 82 46-28 77 74 Ga Southern SunB 2-1 .398 71 99 73 45-26 78 70 Purdue BTw 0-3 .396 35 59 60 51-28 79 77 Arizona PACs 1-2 .393 68 41 92 50-35 80 81 Navy AAw 2-1 .388 97 71 86 46-30 81 108 Temple AAe 1-2 .382 60 92 59 48-24 82 84 Air Force MWm 1-1 .347 111 68 90 46-31 83 87 Tennessee SECe 2-1 .346 124 97 65 46-25 84 78 Eastern Mich MACw 2-1 .345 82 105 79 43-25 85 88 Northern Ill MACw 1-2 .333 20 101 68 45-25 86 109 Florida Int USAe 2-1 .322 94 90 100 42-30 87 68 Ohio U MACe 1-1 .315 83 69 98 45-32 88 102 CoastalCarolina SunB 2-1 .308 81 91 105 41-31 89 83 Tulsa AAw 1-2 .299 54 75 99 44-31 90 92 Nevada MWw 2-1 .299 109 88 97 43-30 91 76 Nebraska BTw 0-2 .296 44 74 75 47-28 92 99 Western Mich MACw 1-2 .289 62 65 106 44-35 93 97 Middle Tenn USAe 1-2 .289 13 94 95 42-29 94 80 UCLA PACs 0-3 .287 3 85 88 45-29 95 100 New Mexico MWm 2-1 .286 88 96 104 41-30 96 91 Hawaii MWw 3-1 .286 84 98 111 39-31 97 90 Wyoming MWm 2-2 .275 59 116 69 42-21 98 95 UN-Las Vegas MWw 2-1 .271 120 77 109 42-34 99 106 UA-Birmingham USAw 2-1 .269 123 89 102 42-31 100 98 Illinois BTw 2-1 .266 115 110 87 41-24 101 93 North Carolina ACCc 0-2 .247 21 95 78 45-26 102 94 La-Monroe SunB 2-1 .245 53 93 117 38-33 103 101 Oregon St PACn 1-2 .243 40 81 116 40-34 104 89 Tulane AAw 1-2 .242 91 103 91 42-27 105 85 Rutgers BTe 1-2 .237 26 112 89 40-25 106 82 Arkansas SECw 1-2 .229 110 82 101 43-31 107 105 East Carolina AAe 1-1 .209 104 102 113 38-32 108 112 SMU AAw 0-3 .203 2 87 115 40-34 109 110 Southern Miss USAw 1-1 .173 130 109 96 39-26 110 115 Western Ky USAe 0-3 .171 10 117 94 38-24 111 113 La-Lafayette SunB 1-1 .170 69 107 122 35-32 112 104 Ball St MACw 1-2 .168 50 113 110 36-28 113 107 Colorado St MWm 1-3 .151 42 108 112 37-30 114 116 Liberty Xind 1-1 .146 93 111 120 34-31 115 117 South Alabama SunB 1-2 .145 48 121 108 34-25 116 114 Miami-Ohio MACe 0-3 .138 15 119 93 38-23 117 111 Massachusetts Xind 1-3 .117 70 104 124 35-34 118 118 Central Mich MACw 0-3 .115 27 120 103 36-24 119 122 Kent St MACe 1-2 .112 65 122 114 32-26 120 120 Connecticut AAe 1-2 .104 30 114 125 31-32 121 119 Georgia St SunB 1-2 .093 39 126 118 31-25 122 124 San Jose St MWw 0-3 .091 22 118 119 33-28 123 121 UT-San Antonio USAw 0-3 .085 9 127 107 32-22 124 123 Bowling Green MACe 1-2 .082 64 115 128 30-33 125 126 Charlotte USAe 2-1 .067 127 129 121 27-24 126 125 Rice USAw 1-2 .054 95 124 127 27-29 127 127 New Mexico St Xind 0-4 .039 37 125 129 27-29 128 129 Old Dominion USAe 0-3 .037 108 123 123 29-28 129 128 Texas St SunB 1-2 .036 121 128 126 25-27 130 130 UT-El Paso USAw 0-3 .013 66 130 130 20-24 *****